1. The American judge puts a stop to it
If US President Joe Biden signs the law today that bans TikTok from the US if the Chinese owner does not renounce it, the status of the app in the US will not change for the time being. The company ByteDance has nine months to find a buyer.
Washington suspects the Chinese government of collecting data via TikTok from the 170 million Americans who have installed the app. Beijing would mainly like to use this information to influence public opinion and thus also politics in the US.
ByteDance denies that it is dancing to the tune of Chinese rulers and immediately announced a first lawsuit on Wednesday to challenge the decision. A law professor from the University of Richmond told the BBC that a verdict in the lawsuit “could take up to two years.”
The company draws hope from previous lawsuits against individual US states that tried to ban officials from installing the app on their phones. The judges saw this as too great an infringement of freedom of expression.
2. The users force a change in the law
Public opinion in the US is divided over the sale and ban of TikTok, with which users mainly share short videos. If even a portion of the 170 million US users come out against the law, it will put pressure on politicians who have now overwhelmingly voted in favor of the legal restrictions. Influencers with millions of followers in particular could cause problems for senators and representatives in a new round of elections.
In the weeks before the vote in Congress, TikTok called on users to call, email or text their representatives to prevent them from banning the app. The platform also paid the travel expenses of several influencers so that they could meet politicians in Washington. In the eyes of critics, the Chinese owner thus showed that the company is willing to use its considerable market power to pursue political goals.
3. China exerts political pressure with countermeasures
The powers that be in Beijing have announced that they do not agree with ByteDance’s forced sale of its stake in TikTok. The Americans have no interest in the legitimate dealings of a Chinese company, according to the commentary. Beijing denies that it is pulling the strings behind the scenes of TikTok. In 2020, the government already announced an ‘export ban’ for the app, which would complicate its sale.
China could choose to impose sanctions on Western products and companies in retaliation. Paying in kind will still be difficult for the Chinese, because tech companies are already subject to all kinds of restrictions in the country. If this situation worsens, those entrepreneurs could ask Washington to roll back or relax the measures.
Because while China is championing TikTok as a company, the government is banning Google and Apple from offering the TikTok app in their online stores for Android phones and iPhones. Chinese people are only allowed to log in to a similar service called Douyin, which is only available in China and is under Chinese supervision and censorship.
4. Donald Trump reverses the law
In 2020, Donald Trump, then President of the United States, said he would ban TikTok. Now, four years later, the top Republican presidential candidate is an opponent of the law passed on Wednesday.
Certainly, Trump believes that TikTok is “a threat to America’s national security” because of the Chinese government’s alleged interference. But a ban would only benefit Facebook, “which is the enemy of the people, along with many other media,” he said on CNN last month.
The fact that TikTok had not been banned under his presidency was not his fault, Trump said in the interview. He had left it up to Congress to take action, without actually signaling it. ‘I should have said, just make that decision, because there are a lot of people who speak out about it (of the app, ed.) to hold. There are a lot of young kids who go crazy when they don’t have the app anymore. There are many users.’ However, it remains unclear whether Trump will reverse the law if he is re-elected.
