Why Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure could cost Biden his head

“Stop attacking Russian oil refineries.” It was this stern message that US Vice President Kamala Harris had for Volodmyr Zelensky during the Munich Security Conference in February. The Ukrainian president responded not amused, according to the American newspaper The Washington Post. And he paid little attention to it, increasing the number of drone attacks in the following months. On the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, Ukrainian drones again destroyed two oil depots near Smolensk. The British news agency Reuters calculated that the Ukrainians had already paralyzed 14 percent of Russian oil production by the end of March.

“If you ask me, it is one of the most successful military actions of the Ukrainian army, together with the campaign in Crimea,” says Lieutenant Colonel Tom Simoens (Royal Military School Brussels). “It makes sense in any war to hit the enemy’s oil and fuel production. Of course, the Russian army will not run out of fuel within four months, but they will have to spend more money on oil imports. These are resources that they cannot use for the production of weapons or for paying wages and pensions.”

No more oil refineries

What is striking is that the Ukrainians have no longer bombarded oil refineries in recent weeks, but have limited themselves to attacking oil depots. “That is less efficient anyway,” says Simoens. “Such depots can often be rebuilt in one week. Attacks on refineries are much more disruptive. Especially if, like the Ukrainian drones, they attack the distillation towers. The oil is processed and separated there, they are actually the brains of the refinery. Not only are they expensive – they cost 1 billion euros – but they also contain technology that is only available in the West. It is not so easy to simply replace them in a snap, given the sanctions against Russia.”

The fact that the attacks are now limited to oil storage sites may have something to do with the response of the United States. After Harris’ warning, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also made it clear to the US Congress two weeks ago that Ukraine would be better off “focusing on tactical and operational objectives that can directly influence the current battle.”

It is striking that the US is thus going directly against important European allies such as France and the United Kingdom, who consider it completely legitimate that Ukraine is trying to hinder Russia’s oil production. “It is not as if Russia limits itself to hitting military targets or only attacks at the front. It is attacking across Ukraine,” said David Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary.

It seems that there are mainly political considerations at play here. In the United States, President Joe Biden is very afraid of a sharp increase in oil prices due to these Ukrainian drone attacks, could The Washington Post hear from White House insiders. If prices at the pump rise, it could hurt Biden’s chances of re-election in November.

“That could well be the most important reason,” says Simoens. “Just as the Belgians have a brick in their stomach, the Americans have a large car that consumes a lot of energy. And so they are very sensitive to price increases in petrol or diesel.” The Biden administration also cites that this would undermine support for the war in Ukraine in Europe.

Dancing on a tightrope

However, according to analysts, such attacks have very little to do with the recent oil price increases. “There is a small geopolitical premium on crude oil associated with the violence in the Middle East,” said Tom Kloza, head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting company, in The Washington Post. “Most of the recent increase in prices can be attributed to production cuts by OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, DT).”

In the meantime, the Ukrainian attacks are causing Russian reprisals on the Ukrainian electricity grid, mainly affecting civilians. Simoens: “But I don’t think that would happen any less if Ukraine did not carry out drone attacks on Russian oil facilities. Many civilian targets were also hit by Russian missiles last year. They are already doing the maximum, more is not possible.”

But Zelensky will have to take American concerns into account to some extent due to financial considerations. The US Congress recently approved a package worth 57 billion euros. The Ukrainian president is walking a tightrope: he must not lose US support, but must also choose the best military strategy.

The coming months will undoubtedly also play a role in the fact that Zelensky has every interest in President Biden being re-elected. Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, has already indicated that he will completely turn off the flow of money to Ukraine if he returns to power.