The Eurovision Song Contest only really starts tomorrow, but the bookmakers have been busy with their predictions for several weeks. If we are to believe their predictions, the Croatian entry Baby Lasagna has the best chance of winning, closely followed by Switzerland. But what about Belgium and the Netherlands? And how accurate are those predictions really?
Now that most of the rehearsals are over, the bookmakers have theirs too douze points handed out. While Nemo has been on the highest stage in recent weeks, Baby Lasagna has once again overtaken the Swiss entry. For the time being, the Croatian act has been assigned a 26 percent chance of winning, compared to 17 percent for Switzerland. Suppose the Croatian candidate actually wins, it will be the first time that the Balkan country will win.
Does that mean that all other countries have no chance? Not by a long shot. Ukraine (14 percent) and Italy (12 percent) also play in the top division.
Belgium and the Netherlands
Unfortunately, peanut butter: since their rehearsals, both Belgium and the Netherlands have suffered a dip in the rankings, each losing two places. The Dutch entry Joost Klein just makes it into the top five, and his chance of winning is currently pegged at six percent.
Our Belgian candidate Thomas ‘Mustii’ Mustin has to make do with twelfth place, and a one percent chance of winning. That doesn’t seem like much, but it doesn’t necessarily mean much. Last year the bookmakers thought our entry Gustaph and his ‘Because of you’ had almost no chance, but he gained momentum during the competition – which ultimately resulted in a seventh place.
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The gatekeepers
Or also: the first five, for those who start counting at the bottom. This year that honor is – well – reserved for Malta, Moldova, Portugal, San Marino and Azerbaijan. Portugal and Azerbaijan have both won once before – in 2017 and 2011, but according to the bookies they should not count on that now. And the other three? They can dream of a potential first trophy in 2025…
How correct are those bookmakers actually?
The question that many people undoubtedly ask themselves: how often are those bookmakers really right? Surprisingly often, as it turns out. Anyone who looks at the results of the past sixteen years (with the exception of 2020, when the match was canceled due to corona) will notice that the bookmakers were right ten times. In 2021, 2017, 2016, 2014, and 2011 they were wrong again. In 2014, for example, there was a big surprise when Conchita Wurst won for Austria, while the bookies didn’t even give the bearded performer a place in the top fifteen.
Although they are not set in stone, some things can be learned from these predictions. For example, the bookmakers’ favorite country – with a huge lead – is Sweden, which they often place in the top ten. Certain countries are completely ignored, with Moldova as one of the most striking examples in recent years. Although the country achieved a place in the top ten in both 2017 and 2022, the bookies did not even consider such a result.
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