Now that the Eurovision Song Contest is about to start: you can (not) learn this from the bookmakers | Showbiz

The question that many people undoubtedly ask themselves: how often are those stupid bookmakers really right? Surprisingly often, as it turns out. Who looks at the results of the past sixteen years? (with the exception of 2020, when the competition was canceled due to corona) notices that the bookmakers were right ten times. In 2021, 2017, 2016, 2014, and 2011 they were wrong again. For example, three years ago Malta – after several years of trying – was initially the top favorite, but Destiny and her ‘Je Me Casse’ only ended up in seventh place. In 2014 the surprise was even greater. Then Conchita Wurst won for Austria, while the bearded performer did not even get a place in the top fifteen from the bookies.

Although they are not set in stone, some things can be learned from these predictions. For example, the bookmakers’ favorite country – with a huge lead – is Sweden, which they often place in the top ten. Certain countries are completely ignored, with Moldova as one of the most striking examples in recent years. Although the country achieved a place in the top ten in both 2017 and 2022, the bookies did not even consider such a result.

Now that most of the rehearsals are over, the bookmakers have theirs too douze points handed out. While Nemo has been on the highest stage in recent weeks, Baby Lasagna has once again overtaken the Swiss entry. For the time being, the Croatian act has been assigned a 26 percent chance of winning, compared to 17 percent for Switzerland. Suppose the Croatian candidate actually wins, the Balkan country will be the first to emerge victorious.

Does that mean that all other countries have no chance? Not by a long shot. Ukraine (14 percent) and Italy (12 percent) also play in the top division.

Too bad. Since their rehearsals, both Belgium and the Netherlands have suffered a dip in the rankings, each losing two places. The Dutch entry Joost Klein just makes it into the top five, and his chance of winning is currently pegged at six percent.

Our Belgian candidate Thomas ‘Mustii’ Mustin has to make do with twelfth place, and a one percent chance of winning. That doesn’t seem like much, but it doesn’t necessarily mean much. Last year the bookmakers thought our entry Gustaph and his ‘Because of you’ had almost no chance, but he gained momentum during the competition – which ultimately resulted in a seventh place.

You have undoubtedly heard the wind blowing during the Eurovision Song Contest: the big five – in other words, the biggest sponsors of the song circus. These are Spain, Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy. But despite that privileged status, they rarely manage to really make a difference at the festival – with the exception of Italy, which even won in 2021. And this year too, according to the bookmakers, the cards of that country are the best. Angelina Mango and her ‘La Noia’ are currently in third place. Three places lower follows the French candidate Slimane, who climbs a mountain with the slow ‘Mon Amour’ douze points hopes to collect. The last in the top ten is Great Britain, which undeniably brings the biggest star to the stage with Olly Alexander and his ‘Dizzy’.

Germany and Spain are doing a lot less well. Isaak and Nebulossa have to make do with 22nd and 24th place in the rankings respectively. Although that does not necessarily mean that you will no longer hear ‘Zorra’ – the Spanish song. During the pre-parties, the pop group’s following proved to be particularly strong.

Also new this year is that these countries will also perform their entries completely live during the semi-finals in which they have been drawn to vote. During the first semi-final – on Tuesday, May 9 – Germany and the United Kingdom will compete, in the second – on Thursday, May 11 – it will be the turn of France, Italy and Spain.

Not only the big five are automatically qualified, but also Sweden. That has everything to do with the win of Loreen, last year’s Swedish entry. This year the host country is sending the brothers Marcus and Martinus, who try to leave an indelible impression with ‘Unforgettable’. The bookmakers think slightly differently about this, and place the – yes – Norwegian gentlemen in fifteenth place. And as you could read above, such a low rating for Sweden is exceptional.

This year will be the ninth time that Australia has attended the Eurovision Song Contest. The country took part for the first time in 2015, when the Eurovision Song Contest celebrated its sixtieth anniversary and Australia was invited as a (so to speak) one-off extra. Afterwards, the Aussies got such a taste that they have been there every year since then. In that time frame they have only failed to reach the final once, but that fate could befall them again this year. According to the bookies, Electric Fields and their ‘One milkali’ – sung in English and an Aboriginal language – would just miss out in the first semi-final. The band is thus given a chance of success of around fifty percent, which would give them eleventh place – while only the first ten candidates will advance.

Still, it remains possible that Australia will pull off a surprise, just like Albania did last year. The bookmakers were then certain that ‘Duje’ by Albina Kelmendi & Familja Kelmendi would not make it, but that turned out to be outside the voting viewers at home. By the way, Albania was the only country that turned the bookie predictions upside down.

In recent years, Ireland has failed to reach the semi-finals more than once, even though the country – together with Sweden – is the most successful in the history of the competition. They have already won seven times, and perhaps they can add an eighth triumph in 2024. For example, their non-binary artist Bambie Thug can call herself the strongest climber in the rankings. Their song ‘Doomsday Blue’ is currently in seventh place, with a four percent chance of winning.

That doesn’t seem like much, but Bambie Thug – who was hospitalized a few days ago after eating spoiled shellfish – started the campaign with a shaky chance of qualifying. Whether their success is based on the song or the hype is another question. The performer calls herself a modern witch, and their extreme look is immediately noticeable.

Or also: the first five, for those who start counting at the bottom. This year that honor is – well – reserved for Malta, Moldova, Portugal, San Marino and Azerbaijan. Portugal and Azerbaijan have both won once before – in 2017 and 2011, but according to the bookies they should not count on that now. And the other three? They can dream of a potential first trophy in 2025…

“I doubt whether their moral compass is completely correct”: Joost Klein not happy with how things are going at the Eurovision Song Contest in Malmö (+)

Behind the scenes at the Eurovision voting: “Of course Joost Klein will get points from Belgium” (+)

IN PICTURE. Mustii in black and white look on turquoise carpet Eurovision, Joost brings his blue bird

Free unlimited access to Showbytes? Which can!

Log in or create an account and never miss anything from the stars.

Yes, I want free unlimited access