Cry from the heart or diversionary maneuver? Letter from Prime Minister Sanchez keeps Spain in suspense

1. What does Prime Minister Sánchez write in his letter?

In a “letter to the population” that he posted on X during the evening rush hour on Wednesday, Pedro Sánchez announced that he will reflect on his fate over the next four days. “I wonder whether it is all still worth it. Honestly: I don’t know,” the Spanish Prime Minister wrote. The reason for his announcement is a judge’s decision to open an investigation into his wife, Begoña Gómez, for influence peddling. “This unprecedented attack is so serious and so brutal that I need time to stop and think.”

“We often forget that there are people behind politicians,” continues an emotional prime minister. “I don’t blush when I say that I am deeply in love with my wife, but I feel powerless against the mud machine.” Even for his entourage, the letter came as a complete surprise. Sánchez, according to the newspaper El Pais only consulted with his family. There is also no official stamp on it. Never before has a Spanish Prime Minister pressed the pause button in this way. He cancels all public appointments in his agenda and thus misses the official kick-off of the Catalan elections on May 12. He will announce during a press conference on Monday whether he will stay on or resign.

2. How serious is the investigation into his wife?

Gómez is said to have had business discussions with the owner of the holding company that holds Air Europa about support for her research institution. And this at a time when the airline received money from the government in the midst of the corona crisis to survive. According to the Spanish Prime Minister, there is a conspiracy by right-wing forces in the country. It is true that Manos Limpios, the radical association that filed the complaint, has so far only brought cases that ultimately turned out to be ineffective. It now remains to be seen what the outcome of the research will be.

3. What happens if the Prime Minister resigns?

Spain then enters unknown territory. In 1981, Adolfo Suárez, Spain’s first democratically elected prime minister, also resigned, but the circumstances were completely different.

In concrete terms, in the event of Sánchez’s resignation, the government will go into care on Monday, but new elections cannot be immediately called. The Spanish constitution states that there must be a wait of at least one year after the previous dissolution of parliament, which is not until the end of May.

There were parliamentary elections in Spain in July 2023. Firstly, an attempt will have to be made to use the results of the last election to set up a new government. That may take a while. And if it doesn’t work, there will be new elections after a while. The centre-right Partido Popular (PP) is currently leading in the polls, and not Sánchez’s social democratic PSOE.

4. What are the chances that Sánchez will actually resign?

Spanish analysts are puzzled. Sánchez has always been full of surprises, but no one can really explain what is going on now. Is the letter a diversionary maneuver by the Prime Minister? Since he succeeded himself last year, the stars have been bad. His left-wing coalition, a minority government, is very weak. The amnesty he promised to Catalan separatists such as Carles Puigdemont in exchange for support continues to hang like a dark shadow over Spanish politics. The prime minister also postponed drawing up the budget because he feared he would not be able to gather enough support in parliament.

Here and there it is also suggested that Sánchez would prefer to move to Brussels. The European Social Democrats are eyeing Charles Michel’s seat and would like to deliver the new President of the European Council after the European elections. The name that comes up most often is that of the Portuguese former Prime Minister Antonio Costa. He resigned as prime minister last year, also after an investigation into corruption, but against his chief of staff. His name was completely cleared last week. Did Costa inspire his neighbor Sánchez?

Be that as it may, the whole affair exposes the enormous divisions in Spain. According to one camp, Sánchez can only win on Monday, while the other camp says he can only lose. The prime minister is accused of hubris and narcissism. “Does he really expect everyone to beg him not to leave?” right-wing newspapers say. His letter is dismissed by his opponents as overly pathetic and emotional. “A prime minister should not play the victim in that way.” Only the left-wing newspaper El Pais continues to support Sánchez and criticizes the coarsening of politics in the country.

Sánchez built a reputation as a cunning politician who never gives up and always gets back on his feet. He will now keep Spain in suspense for another four days. Then we’ll know if his nine lives have been used up.