Nursing homes are filling up and there is a threat of a shortage of space

After being vacant during the corona pandemic, residential care centers are filling up again. There is a risk of a shortage of space, especially in the provinces of Limburg, East and West Flanders. ‘In the future, a bed in a traditional nursing home will only be available for elderly people with complex care needs.’

In 2023, the number of beds occupied in nursing homes returned to the level before the first lockdown for the first time, around 94 percent. This is evident from figures from the Healthcare Department that De Tijd requested.

During the corona pandemic, the sector experienced severe weather and many elderly people stayed away. There was a strict room quarantine, many residents were not allowed to receive visitors for weeks and almost two in three Covid deaths occurred in a nursing home. Because older Flemish people wanted to live at home for as long as possible during that period, occupancy figures fell to a low point in 2021.

But that time is over. After the public and non-profit nursing homes – which had largely overcome the corona shock in 2022, with an occupancy that stagnated around 95 percent last year – the commercial residential care centers are now also making a comeback. The occupancy rate there was even higher last year than before the pandemic (see graph). “Our catch-up movement was slow, but is now clearly picking up,” says Johan Staes, the CEO of the association of private residential care centers Vlozo.

The occupancy figures vary greatly depending on the province. If you take the three types of nursing homes together (commercial, non-profit and public), almost 17 percent of the beds are still available in Brussels and 8 percent in Antwerp. In East Flanders, West Flanders and Limburg the margin is much smaller: less than 5 percent of the places are available there.

Given the rapid aging of the population, there is a threat of shortages. An entire generation of baby boomers is getting older and will no longer be able to live independently at home between this and ten years. By 2030, Flanders will have an estimated 243,000 people over the age of 85. That is 16 percent more than in 2020. In 15 years it will even be 320,000 people.

“It is time that we take these figures seriously and increase the capacity in our nursing homes,” says Margot Cloet, the CEO of the Flemish hospital and nursing home umbrella organization Zorgnet-Icuro. Today, Flanders and Brussels have approximately 83,000 nursing home beds. According to the umbrella organization, there should be at least 7,000 more by 2030.

Cloet emphasizes that the decision to create extra capacity cannot wait until the next government. ‘It takes three to four years to build a residential care center and find sufficient staff. If we do not want the elderly to end up on endless waiting lists, the Flemish government must now give its approval for extra beds.’

The office of Flemish Minister of Welfare Hilde Crevits (CD&V) reports that this exercise is in full swing. ‘The approvals are fixed until 2025 and there is still room for 3,000 additional housing units. Preparations are underway for what will be needed afterwards – the number of beds and their distribution – in consultation with the sector.’

Crevits does indicate that finding sufficient staff remains a concern. Attracting students, transfer students and logistics employees, among others, must compensate for this.

Alternative solutions are also required. “7,000 additional places will not be able to accommodate the significant increase in the number of elderly people in Flanders,” says Cloet. For example, more effort will have to be made on informal and home care and on day care centers. More small-scale initiatives and cohousing with different generations can also provide relief. ‘In the future, a bed in a traditional nursing home will only be reserved for elderly people with serious and complex care needs.’