Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe will not be pleasant, but Brussels and Beijing continue to need each other

Xi arrived in Paris on Sunday, the first stop on his European tour. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will join us on Monday to give Xi’s state visit to France a European touch.

The Chinese leader finds the EU in a belligerent mood. Five years ago, profitable trade was the unshakable foundation of the relationship between the EU and the world’s second largest economy. The pandemic and China’s partnership with Russia, the biggest threat to European security, have replaced the belief that trade relations will also trigger other changes in China, the so-called Walk through Trade idea, for a new European realism.

Beijing, which remains formally neutral on the war against Ukraine, does not supply weapons to Moscow, but Chinese companies are said to keep the Russian war machine running with chips, machines, ingredients for explosives, satellite images and other dual usegoods for both civil and military applications.

Support to Russia

Not for the first time, one Western government leader after another went to Beijing in recent weeks to appeal to Xi about his support for Russia. Xi couldn’t help but smile, even though he can certainly smile radiantly, for example at Russian dignitaries who come to Beijing to prepare for the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin in May.

From Xi’s perspective, there is little fun to be had in the EU at the moment. At least, until he arrives in Hungary and candidate EU member Serbia later this week. In these countries, China still has the trusted status of best friend, investor and partner in security issues, and friendship with Putin is not a problem but a privilege.

Before Xi can sink into that Eastern European warm bath, Macron takes him to the French Pyrenees. Macron, as host of the Olympic Games, will ask Xi to use his influence on Putin, for example for a ceasefire during the Games.

With a view of the mountain peaks where the French president spent childhood holidays with his beloved grandmother, Macron can talk all he wants about world peace, Xi will think of the millions of Chinese electric cars that will remain unsold in European ports if the EU makes good on its threat of additional import duties . The investigation into dumping of Chinese electric cars, which will be completed this summer, is partly prompted by France, which wants to protect its car industry.

Unfair state aid

A stark warning to Xi came this week from European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis: if China protects its market from European makers of medical equipment, the EU will do the same. “Either both markets are open, or they are both closed,” Dombrovskis told the American news website Politico.

That the EU not only barks, but also bites was evident last week from an unprecedented European raid on two European branches of the Chinese scanner manufacturer Nuctech, which, according to Brussels, receives unfair state support from Beijing.

The new concerns about increasing security risks of trade with China go hand in hand with old complaints about a lack of reciprocity in economic relations. This currently gives the Brussels instruments for achieving a fair playing field a sharp cartel edge. Whether it concerns scanners from Nuctech or dirt-cheap electric cars from the Chinese car manufacturer BYD, Europe is suddenly hyper-aware of the enormous amounts of data that can end up with the Chinese security services via Chinese high-tech. And that is just one of the dangers, as recently emerged from a series of revelations about Chinese-linked espionage networks.

Brussels had not yet recovered from the shock of the arrest of Jian G., who spied on European politics through his German boss Maximilian Krah of the radical right AfD, when the Belgian government this week summoned the Chinese ambassador for the hacking of equipment from five Belgian politicians. A criminal investigation is now underway in Belgium into the espionage affair surrounding the far-right Vlaams Belang parliamentarian Frank Creyelman, who tried to put other politicians under Chinese influence.

Two Britons were recently arrested in the United Kingdom for possible involvement in Chinese political influence. The German police arrested three Germans who allegedly stole sensitive knowledge and equipment from universities and companies for payment by Chinese security services.

Political manipulation

According to Western security services, this is only the tip of an iceberg of Chinese espionage and political influence, after Chinese intimidation of dissidents, academics, human rights lawyers and journalists previously came into the spotlight.

Beijing rejects these accusations as “political manipulation to damage China’s image.” The question is whether the EU will really bite the bullet in this area. Despite all the potential breaking points – Russia, unfair trade, espionage – Brussels and Beijing continue to need each other, if only on an economic level. If Europeans can find a new balance between their grievances and the good sides of the relationship with China, Xi can at least pretend that he is willing to take these European concerns seriously.