Stefaan Poedts: improved space weather forecasting
Full professor of the Faculty of Sciences; chairman of the Leuven Center for Computational Modelling
Just like on Earth, there is also a weather forecast in space to predict solar winds and storms. Because the effects of solar winds and storms have a major impact on both satellites and on Earth, it is important to carry out these predictions as accurately as possible and take measures if necessary. Due to the great distance to the sun and the different layers that make up the atmosphere, many different physical parameters play a role in the weather and the forecast becomes very complex.
“As a solution, a separate model is made of each effect and for each zone between the sun and the earth. These models are then linked to each other to arrive at the space weather report,” says Professor Stefaan Poedts. “Due to the combination of the different models, an enormous amount of computing power is required to perform the analysis and predict solar winds in time and strength. Even to such an extent that the calculation with the most realistic models takes longer than the two days it takes for a solar wind to reach Earth.”
The Open SESAME project focuses on the first link in the chain that models space weather sources closest to the Sun, namely the Sun’s atmosphere. “By integrating more physical processes, we can optimize not only the first link but also all subsequent models. This way we can predict space weather not only better but also faster and take measures against upcoming space weather by, for example, temporarily reducing electricity transport and covering or temporarily switching off measuring equipment in satellites. In this way we can estimate damage that could amount to 2.7 trillion (2.7 * 10) worldwide for an extreme event.21) dollar could increase, partially prevent.”
Read more about the Open SESAME project
Tags: ERC Advanced Grants Leuven researchers
