All eyes on Putin, who can once again report territorial gains: the president is preparing for Victory Day

“We are a united and great country. Together we will overcome all obstacles. Together we will overcome. I assure you that I will put the interests and security of the Russian people above everything else.”

The 71-year-old Putin is starting his fifth term as president and that included a short speech. He can start this term through a constitutional amendment in 2020. This even allows him to add a sixth term (in which case he will remain president until he is 83).

Putin – as president or prime minister – has been at the head of the Russian federation since 1999. When this term is over, only Catherine the Great (1729-’96) will have ruled the country longer than he. The ceremony surrounding the swearing-in referred to that glorious past.

“The ceremony always takes place in one of the palaces built under Tsarism,” says Nicolaas Kraft van Ermel (University of Groningen), a historian specialized in Russia and Ukraine. “There is a very military atmosphere to the ceremony. The soldiers’ uniforms are inspired by the nineteenth century.”

According to Kraft van Ermel, there is a pattern in the speeches that Putin gives at such ceremonies. For decades he has presented himself as the man responsible for Russia’s security. Since the war in Ukraine, he has added a very clear enemy: the West.

Victory Day

On Thursday, all eyes will once again be on Putin. Russia then commemorates the victory over Nazi Germany on May 9, 1945. The fact that Russia commemorates the end of the war on a different day than us is due to the time difference. Traditionally, the celebration is accompanied by awe-inspiring military parades on Red Square, which above all serve to demonstrate Russia’s current power. Green trucks with nuclear missiles are featured.

But last year it was a commemoration in a minor key. There was only one tank of the T-34 type, with which the Soviets advanced into Germany during the Second World War. Furthermore, there was not much to see of the great military display. “It said something about the state of the Russian army,” says Kraft van Ermel. “Apparently the reserves had shrunk so much that there was nothing left for the parade.”

Last year the fighting went very badly for Russia. The army was forced onto the defensive and there was talk of an imminent Ukrainian offensive. Now the situation is completely reversed and the Russian troops are making territorial gains. Since the beginning of the year, the army has advanced 547 kilometers, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said last week. “It is difficult to predict exactly what Putin will say in his speech,” says Russia expert Ria Laenen (KU Leuven). “But we can expect that the tone will be completely different and that has everything to do with the current situation in Ukraine.”

The themes will probably remain the same. A year ago, Putin kept it to a short 10-minute speech. But they were enough for him to bring out his hobbyhorses. According to Putin, Russia is not the aggressor in Ukraine. On the contrary, it is defending itself against a siege from the West. “Once again a war has been unleashed against the motherland,” the Russian president said.

Putin thus implicitly links Ukraine and its Western patrons to Nazism, while the Russians have to defend themselves against an attack from outside, just like in the Second World War. “That is the typical reverse logic that Putin applies,” says Laenen. “Putin’s narrative is that he will do everything he can to protect Russian sovereignty.”

In his speech last year, Putin also spoke about the “traditional family values” that the West wants to “destroy.” Putin therefore not only cast himself as the protector of Russia, but also as the guardian of the classical family.

According to Laenen, Putin often uses nuclear weapons to keep enemies at bay. Just this week he ordered his troops to prepare exercises with tactical nuclear weapons. Russia says it is responding to “provocations”, such as the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine.

Relationships

Major ceremonies also say something about relations with other countries – or rather the lack thereof. According to the Kremlin, all ambassadors in Moscow were invited to attend the swearing-in ceremony. But the US, Canada, the United Kingdom and twenty EU member states failed to act.

On May 9, the seats of their representatives will also remain empty. The Russian army has also set up an exhibition with captured tanks and armored personnel carriers from those countries. It wants to show that it can defeat Ukraine despite NATO support. “Our victory is inevitable,” signs read.

Moscow’s aggressive language contrasts with what Ukraine has been saying lately. There are calls to start negotiations – the chief of the intelligence service hinted at this in an interview with The Economist. “But the Russians see no point in it now,” says Laenen. “They feel that they can first force breakthroughs at the front.”