Why the Ukrainian blunder in the village of Ocheretyne could have major consequences

Five days ago, Ocheretyne, a village of about 3,000 inhabitants before the war in the Donetsk province in the Donbas, was still firmly in the hands of the Ukrainian army. Today the Russians control at least half of it, and have advanced nearly five kilometers west in one fell swoop. On the military situation map, the village now forms a clear narrow bulge from what last week was a relatively stable front along the first Ukrainian defense line.

The breach made at Ocheretyne appears to be the result of a blunder by the Ukrainian army that could have had catastrophic consequences for this sector of the front. Thanks to its location at an altitude 15 kilometers northwest of Avdiivka and along the railway line that runs to the Pokrovsk logistics hub in the west, Ocheretyne offers an important tactical advantage to those who control it.

47th Brigade

Until Sunday, that advantage was held by the 47th Brigade of the Ukrainian army, also called the Bradley Brigade after the American armored vehicles with which it is equipped. The approximately 2,000-strong group is also highly regarded due to its extensive experience and training according to NATO standards. Last year the brigade was one of the few to make territorial gains in the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and early this year it played a key role in delaying the Russian offensive for Avdiivka, which was captured in February.

But all that incessant fighting also takes its toll. So the 47th Brigade would withdraw from Otsjeretyne last weekend to regain strength behind the front. The intention was that the soldiers would be relieved by the soldiers of the 115th Mechanized Brigade. However, things went terribly wrong there: according to several sources, the 115th Brigade never showed up.

The Russian drone pilots who continuously scan the area for front movements saw their opportunity and immediately sent a Russian brigade towards the village, which was largely captured without much fuss. On Sunday, Russian soldiers hoisted their flag on the town hall. The exhausted 47th Brigade had no choice but to make a hasty turnaround and once again throw everything into battle to prevent the whole of Ocheretyne from falling into Russian hands.

“The drastic advance of the Russians was made possible because certain units were simply left behind,” Mykola Melnyk, one of the best-known commanders of the 47th Brigade, said on Telegram on Monday. “The breaches have been closed by those who should normally have been alternated: the 47th Brigade has returned to action. Another month and we will have reached a year without rotation.”

“The capture of Otsjeretyne could have resulted in a major tactical breakthrough for the Russians, with operationally important consequences,” confirms Lieutenant Colonel Tom Simoens (Royal Military School Brussels). “Breaking through the Ukrainian defense line that runs here could potentially have meant tens and even hundreds of square kilometers of territorial gain in one go. The hope now is that there will be a well-developed second line further away.”

‘Mini Kharkiv scenario’

Simoens previously warned of a possible ‘reverse mini-Kharkiv scenario’ that could materialize in 2024, referring to the Ukrainian counter-offensive of September 2022, which quickly captured 12,000 square kilometers of territory in the northeast after a breach in the Russian lines. liberated. “This could have been something similar, albeit on a smaller scale.”

That situation seems to have been avoided for the time being, although the danger has not passed. The fighting continues, with Ukrainian commanders describing it as “extremely difficult.” For the Ukrainians, the main thing now is to avoid the narrow strip becoming wider.

For the time being, the latter is proving difficult. According to the Telegram channel DeepState, which is close to the Ukrainian army, “Pandora’s box has been opened.” On Wednesday the Russians took Novobachmutivka, a hamlet near Ocheretyne. “Unfortunately the armed forces are not equal, there are more bastards (Russians, TT) than our infantrymen. Not to mention their anti-aircraft and artillery.”

It is not entirely clear why the 115th Brigade left its positions, but it may have been due to panic among the troops. “That is to be expected in some way,” says Simoens. “Russian fighter planes flying over your head undisturbed while 1,500-kilogram bombs are constantly hitting around you… Then you have to be very strong not to flee.”

The new American weapons package may bring relief, also for the morale of the Ukrainians. “You can ask yourself to what extent the situation in Otsjeretyne is symptomatic for the rest of the front,” says Simoens. “The situation is very urgent. Russia senses that Ukraine is having a hard time and appears to be intensifying its attacks now that they know new weapons are coming. The front is under tremendous pressure in several places, such as in Chasiv Yar. If similar ‘mini-Kharkiv scenarios’ play out there, there is the potential for them all to form a ‘super-Kharkiv’ and the front to collapse.”