A new Russian offensive could test the Ukrainian army to its limits. General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of the Ukrainian military intelligence service HUR, said this in an interview with The Economist. According to Skibitsky, negotiations with Russia are therefore unavoidable in the long term.
The Ukrainian army has been suffering from a lack of ammunition and weapons for months, not helped by delays from Western allies. Skibitsky is according to The Economist therefore “worried” when he talks about the Ukrainian prospects on the battlefield. “Conditions right now are as difficult as they were in the early days of the Russian invasion, and they are going to get worse. Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. The Russians always knew that April and May would be a difficult period for us.”
According to Skibitsky, Russia will first push into the east of the country, where Russian troops have been trying to “liberate” the Donetsk and Luhansk regions for some time. “The Kremlin has given the order to capture ‘something’ for the Victory Day fanfare in Moscow (on May 9, ed.), or if that doesn’t work out for Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing a week later. The speed and success of that advance will determine when and where the Russians will strike next.”
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© EPA-EFE
From Khasiv Yar to Sumy
Experts have long pointed out the danger of Russia capturing the strategically important town of Khasiv Yar, the last stronghold of the Ukrainian army in Donetsk Oblast. “It is probably only a matter of time before that city suffers the same fate as Avdiivka in February: bombed into oblivion by the Russians. Of course, that won’t happen today or tomorrow, but it just depends on our supplies and reserves.”
Ukrainian resistance there will determine where Russia attacks next, according to Skibitsky. “They already have an eye on Sumy and Kharkov (two cities that are a lot further north, ed.)but for the time being they do not have enough personnel for a major offensive.”
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Chasiv Yar — © AP
Peace negotiations “inevitable”
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has ruled out talks with the Kremlin several times in the past, even issuing a presidential decree banning negotiations. But given his pessimistic assessment of the war, Skibitsky believes that at some point Ukraine will have to negotiate with Russia about the end of the war.
“I see no way that Ukraine can win the war on the battlefield alone,” he said. “Even if we could push Russian troops back to the border – which seems increasingly unlikely – it would not end the war. Such wars can only end with a treaty. Both sides are now competing for the most favorable position at the start of potential talks.” According to Skibitsky, these negotiations can only start “at the earliest in the second half of 2025”.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba spoke out in an interview with the magazine earlier this week Foreign Policy already in the same sentence. “Ultimately, you cannot end a war without the consent of both sides,” he said.
Major General Vadym Skibitsky — © Global Images Ukraine via Getty
