South Korea ‘sensing geopolitical uncertainty’ avoids commitment in potential Taiwan crisis, maintains China ties

Seong-Hyon Lee, visiting scholar at the Harvard University Asia Center, said South Korea’s reservations in getting involved in a Taiwan crisis stemmed from “uncertainty” as wars rage in Ukraine and the Middle Eastand November’s US elections languidly.

“South Korea is sensing geopolitical uncertainty,” he said, noting that Seoul was “toning down the rhetoric” on Taiwan so as not to inject uncertainty that could “easily turn into volatility”.

Before Blinken’s three-day visit to China, US officials pointed to a period of relative calm in the Taiwan Strait over the past few months, after years of aggressive Chinese military maneuvers and threats.

During Blinken’s visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi outlined Chinese concerns about US policies on the South China Sea and Taiwan, adding that mainland China’s “core interests are facing challenges”.

Just hours after Blinken departed on Saturday, Taiwan reported a sudden surge of military activity, with a dozen Chinese warplanes flying sorties close to the island.

Lee said that given the defeat of President Yoon’s People Power Party during last month’s National Assembly electionsthe South Korean leader needed “to show that he can manage relations with China”, especially ahead of a trilateral leadership summit between China, Japan and South Korea later this month.

Jae-Jeok Park, an associate professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at South Korea’s Yonsei University, said North Korea could take advantage of a Taiwan crisis, by taking over disputed islands near the Northern Limit Line, the maritime border between the two Koreas.

“Preparing against a possible attack from North Korea is helping the US in Taiwan indirectly,” Park said, noting that Washington could then utilize its forces without worrying about North Korean provocation.

“Sending troops to Taiwan is not the only way we can support the US in Taiwan. Preventing North Korea from attacking South Korea is an indirect and important way to support the US in Taiwan,” Park said.

If South Korean troops were sent to Taiwan, Park predicted that Seoul would have little wiggle room.

“South Korea would not have space to consider China’s strategic position… [Seoul] would have no choice but to side with the US,” Park said.

Alexander M. Hynd, a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said that under the US-South Korea alliance, Seoul was keen to maximize its diplomatic independence from America while holding onto Washington’s security guarantee.

“It is not in South Korea’s interests to commit itself prematurely to joining a US military action,” said Hynd, who specializes in Asia-Pacific’s international relations and politics.

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