Scenario 1: A wild benefactor solves everything (economic science fiction)
The chance of a restart by the family has been completely lost. She is divided into different camps. It has become clear in recent weeks that things cannot continue as the company is currently doing. Preventive work should have been carried out for this.
“Whether there are 8, 18 or 38 family members active in the company, first and foremost, agreement must be found on the shared values,” says Diane Arijs, professor of family businesses and mental well-being at KU Leuven. “They must agree on what they stand for and, for example, how customers and suppliers are dealt with. Or: are we going to focus on a specific sector or are we going to diversify? Consensus must be found on this.”
But it is hopelessly too late for that at Van Hool. There have been family feuds for years, which weigh on business operations. Arijs: “Problems should have been discussed immediately instead of sweeping them under the rug. It could also have been agreed what should happen if one of the family members wanted to leave the company. That is not the case now.”
A deus ex machina in the form of an external investor who suddenly puts a lot of money on the table is another option to avert bankruptcy. “But when you see how big the losses are and how much money is needed in the short term for the necessary working capital, that seems to me to be a purely theoretical possibility,” says Dominique De Marez of the Eubelius law firm. “You also need to have the necessary money for collective dismissals and other restructuring costs and, given the size of the company, this will also involve very large amounts.”
Scenario 2: Family still finds a solution (not very realistic)
An external advisor is now busy trying to untangle both the family and financial-strategic knots. If the family feuds could be put aside, perhaps a solution could be found.
An attempt is being made to reach an agreement with the creditors through a collective agreement. “In such a global debt restructuring, the banks have a strong say in the story,” says De Marez. “At large companies, such as Van Hool, voting takes place in groups of creditors. And in each group a majority must be found willing. This means that each group has a veto right. That doesn’t make things any easier.”
Some wonder whether it was the intention to reach a collective agreement at all. “With such a reorganization, it is crucial that you have a solid cash buffer to survive during the procedure. If you look at Van Hool’s statements in the media, that certainly does not seem to be the case.”
Scenario 3: Gaining time with prepack procedure (postponement of execution)
A new procedure, which was only introduced last year, is the so-called prepack. This is somewhat in line with the transfer under judicial authority. “With the prepack, the company is actually already bankrupt, but bankruptcy has not yet been declared,” says De Marez. “In that case, an intended curator will already be appointed with the aim of negotiating a restart together with the management. But this also requires cash, because in the meantime you have to continue to pay your staff and other costs. No mean feat at a company as large as Van Hool.”
Such a procedure is also possible for a maximum of two months. And with the large real estate component there is an additional problem. De Marez: “You may not be able to transfer that in the short term. For example, you already have to pass the notary. That takes time.”
Scenario 4: Bankruptcy, retire and start over (most plausible)
According to an expert who knows the situation very well and who has spoken to a number of stakeholders in the government and external investors in recent days, this is by far the most plausible scenario. “Go bankrupt and pick up the pieces: that is the issue now. Ensure a quick bankruptcy and then discuss with the trustees what can happen, in consultation with mediators and the government. What will be retained, how many staff can continue with: a solution can then be found to these questions.”
Another specialist we consulted also saw Van Hool heading towards bankruptcy for weeks. “I cannot look into the minds of those involved, but a number of steps have been taken that do not make sense for a soft landing. I have the feeling that there is no big master plan behind this.”
There are currently hundreds of interested parties, but almost all of them only want to join after the company has gone bankrupt. This includes Guido Dumarey, who promises to save 1,800 jobs and keep them in Koningshooikt. That would also be the end of the story for the Van Hool family. “Family shareholders who do not understand each other complicate everything,” says Jeroen Delvoie of Eubelius law firm. “New rules are coming, which would allow the judge to sideline shareholders in the interests of the company. But that is not yet the case.”
‘Family shareholders who do not understand each other complicate everything’
