The starting shot has not yet been given and yet the question does not seem to be whether, but rather how, Tadej Pogacar will win the Giro. Three weeks in the pink or rather with the handbrake on towards the Tour and Games? Ex-winner Tom Dumoulin and analyst Renaat Schotte make their predictions in Sporza Daily.
For Tom Dumoulin there is little doubt: Tadej Pogacar will join him on the Giro honors list at the end of May.
“Pogacar can do everything. He is the sky-high favorite,” the Dutchman opens. “Nobody really comes close to him. Geraint Thomas and Romain Bardet will normally not make it difficult for him. If he doesn’t encounter anything, he doesn’t have to fear the competition.”
What if… Renaat Schotte has not yet ruled out the latter scenario. “The Giro remains quite unpredictable. We have often started with an outspoken favorite, and yet we were given a completely different podium.”
“A lot can happen in 3 weeks: bad weather, a fall, illness… You wouldn’t wish it on anyone, but it is part of the race. Pogacar is not immune to it: his broken wrist in Liège may have indirectly cost him last year.” the Tour.”
Yet Renaat Schotte also sees little opposition for Pogacar. “In principle, Ineos Grenadiers has a strong collective with Thomas and Thymen Arensman. Bora-Hansgrohe is counting on Daniel Martinez and Romain Bardet rode strongly in Liège. But the flush is indeed thin for the rankings.”
Pogacar can certainly lead the Giro from start to finish. It would be a unique achievement.
Tom Dumoulin
Without accidents, the overall winner of the Giro seems quite predictable. The Slovenian’s tactics are much less predictable. “I’m really curious how he will handle it,” says Dumoulin.
Option 1: already conquer the pink jersey in the opening weekend? “If he wants it, he will immediately take the maglia rosa,” the ex-Giro winner is convinced. “The opening stage suits him like a glove,” Schotte agrees.
The disadvantage is that UAE Team Emirates has to defend the pink jersey for three weeks. “Pogacar can certainly lead from start to finish. It would be a unique achievement,” said Dumoulin.
“It is certainly realistic, but is it also sensible?” Schotte adds. “As a pink jersey, you lose at least 1 to 1.5 hours every day in obligations, interviews, ceremonies, doping controls… Maintaining that for three weeks weighs heavily, even for Superman Pogi.”
That approach would also result in “quite a bit of work” for his teammates, Dumoulin estimates.
“I can imagine that during the opening weekend in the UAE support car they think: ‘Tadej, don’t take that pink jersey, because it will make your life miserable’,” Schotte concludes.
Pogacar has had a stunning spring.
Double, triple or quadruple?
Option 2 then: don’t overdo it and only strike later in the Giro?
With a view to the Tour, that may seem the most appropriate choice. “I don’t have to explain how tough a Grand Tour is,” says Dumoulin. “That means being focused for three weeks, without relaxing for a moment. That is very tough mentally and physically.”
“To do two big rounds in a row… I found that very tough,” the Dutchman says from experience. He came 2nd in the Giro and the Tour in 2018.
“That may be easier to digest for Pogacar. He can, so to speak, win the Giro at 95 percent. If anyone can get the double, it is him.”
If the double Giro-Tour can be done for one year, it might be this year, because Jonas Vingegaard is seriously injured.
Tom Dumoulin
Then Pogacar will also have to deal with tougher competition in the Tour. “If it can be done one year, it might be this year, because Jonas Vingegaard is seriously injured,” Dumoulin estimates.
“If Vingegaard starts, he will certainly not be as good as in recent years,” Renaat Schotte also thinks. “One man’s death is another man’s bread. It is an opportunity that Pogacar should not miss.”
The Sporza analyst is even looking beyond the Tour, because the World Cup and the Olympic road race are also on Pogacar’s programme. Only Eddy Merckx and Stephen Roche could win the Giro, the Tour and the world title in one season.
“Someday someone has to match the triple of Merckx and Roche. Or maybe even improve it with the Olympic title. And if anyone is capable of it, it is Tadej Pogacar.”
Will we get the first chapter of a piece of sports history in Italy?
Giro d’Italia
