Macron and his Renaissance are conducting a rescue operation, but how much is left to save?

If the French vote in the European elections according to current polls, the result will be simple: President Macron has suffered a heavy defeat. Gilles Finchelstein, director of the Parisian think tank Fondation JeanJaurès, wrote this in the daily newspaper two months ago. Le Monde.

Since then, Renaissance’s polls have only gotten worse. Last Monday, research agency IFOP published the latest score: Renaissance could count on 16 percent of the votes. The radical right party Rassemblement National gets double in those polls. Even the lead over the left-wing Parti Socialiste, which has been decimated in French politics in recent years, is marginal.

That requires symbolism and political heavyweights. In the Maison de la Mutualité, an Art Deco-style monument on the left bank of the Seine, Renaissance party leader and MEP Valérie Hayer will find auxiliary troops at her side on Tuesday evening during her party’s second major campaign evening in the run-up to the European elections. At the instigation of President Macron, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will be present, as will a host of ministers, including Stéphane Séjourné (Foreign Affairs), Bruno Le Maire (Economy), and Éric Dupond-Moretti (Justice).

This is where Macron launched his political movement En Marche! in July 2016, from which the Renaissance party emerged. Seven years ago to the day, he was elected president, the youngest ever in the history of the Fifth Republic (the French form of government since 1958). The audience hesitantly sings the birthday song ‘Joyeux anniversaire’, and the French and European flags that the organization previously distributed go into the air.

Rescue operation

It is a rescue operation, that is how the meeting is characterized in the French press. But how much can still be saved, barely a month before the polls? According to Le Monde Macron himself would count on about 20 percent of the votes. An optimistic estimate compared to the polls, but still far behind the estimated gain for Rassemblement National. This is painful for the Macron camp, which also lost the absolute majority in the French House of Representatives two years ago.

Of the voters who voted for Macron in the first round in the 2022 presidential elections, 20 percent are expected to choose a left-wing candidate in the European elections, according to research by Fondation Jean-Jaurès. Macron could initially count on a relatively young support base, which was politically diverse – from both the left and the right. In recent years, this has shifted to an older and mainly centre-right support base.

The audience in the Maison de la Mutualité, which is packed with 3,500 spectators on Tuesday evening, is diverse in age, but unanimous in motivation: European cooperation feels more urgent than ever, now that there is war again on the continent. That feeling resonates in Renaissance’s campaign under the slogan: ‘Besoin d’Europe’, need for Europe.

Prominent in Renaissance’s election manifesto is the development of European defense, in light of the Russian invasion, and a possible military withdrawal of the United States if Donald Trump were to be re-elected president in November. Macron wants a fund that supports European defense industries and wants to establish preferential arrangements for weapons orders for European manufacturers.

World of threats

While Jordan Bardella, leader of Rassemblement National, emphasizes France in his campaign, this is about world politics. Unrest in the Middle East, the rise of China, and above all Russian aggression in Ukraine – the series of speeches on Tuesday evening are about the major threats. Democracy is in danger, it sounds. And that Europe can die is not an exaggeration, François Bayrou, mayor of Pau in southern France, quotes the words that Macron said at the end of April. “We are not here to endure history,” Bayrou said, “but to write history.”

In that world of threats, Europe is “our life insurance,” says Prime Minister Attal, who appears on stage as the last guest before the arrival of party leader Valérie Hayer. Once again the French and European flags are raised in the audience. “We love Europe,” says Attal, “and that’s what we stand for!”