Shift to the right expected in the European Parliament: “More difficult to find a majority for climate” | Elections 2024

In the 27 member states of the European Union (EU), approximately 373 million people will go to the polls from June 6 to 9. A total of 720 deputies are elected to the European Parliament.

In our country we will cast our vote on Sunday, June 9, and 22 members of parliament will be elected, 13 of whom are Dutch speakers.

A month before the polls, polls unanimously predict that far-right and nationalist parties will make progress. Although this does not immediately mean that the current ‘grand coalition’ is in danger.

This consists of Christian Democrats, Liberals and Social Democrats. Politicians from these political groups have been drawing up new European laws for decades. Over the past five years, for example, they provided the USB-C charger for the iPhone, drastic climate legislation and strict rules for tech giants.

These groups also provide support for the European Commission. Under the leadership of the German Ursula von der Leyen, the EU executive committee ensured, among other things, the purchase of corona vaccines. This allowed member states to jointly enforce better prices and faster deliveries.

“The radical, populist right-wing forces, some of which are extreme, will make progress,” Pascale Joannin of the Robert Schuman Foundation told the AFP news agency. “But it won’t be a tidal wave.”

The (extreme) right-wing parties from the various Member States have divided themselves into two groups in the European Parliament.

On the one hand you have the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), with members such as N-VA, but also Fratelli d’Italia of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the nationalist Swedish Democrats who provide tolerable support to the government in the Scandinavian country.

On the other hand, you have the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which includes Vlaams Belang, Rassemblement National (France) and Alternatieve für Deutschland as members.

Von der Leyen wants to lead the European Commission for another five years, but he needs the support of a majority in Parliament to do so. As a member of the centre-right and Christian Democratic European People’s Party (EPP), she could look to the ECR and ID for support.

She has already ruled out a collaboration with ID, because she accuses them of being allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A coalition with ECR, then? “It will depend on the composition of parliament and who is in which group,” Von der Leyen said at the end of April. This led to outrage among her current Social Democratic coalition partners and among Green MPs.

Prime Minister Meloni would also like to cooperate with Von der Leyen’s Christian Democrats. She withdraws the European list of her post-fascist party Fratelli d’Italia. “I want to create a majority that unites the forces of the right to send the left to the opposition,” she has said.

But that seems unlikely. “According to the polls, there is no other stable coalition possible today than the one currently in power,” estimates Pascale Joannin.

It seems that the EPP will remain the largest in the European Parliament. The Social Democrats (S&D) come in second, who would lose a lot of seats. That group includes Vooruit and PS.

It remains to be seen whether the liberals of Renew Europe (with members such as Open Vld and MR) will become the third largest group. They are also at a loss and will therefore have to compete against the right-wing groups ECR and ID. Although that would not be enough to thwart a re-release of the current coalition.

Although Italian Prime Minister Meloni will try to influence new laws. “She can have an impact on issues that are dear to her, such as migration,” Joannin analyzes. European Parliament members are notorious for their independence, so a rotating majority with support from Meloni’s fellow party members, for example, could easily be possible.

Experts from the Jacques Delors Institute tell AFP that far-right parties can influence European legislation without becoming part of a coalition. According to Nathalie Brack and Awenig Marié, this has happened more and more often in recent years. For example, certain parts of the Commission’s climate legislation were rejected or watered down.

Greens co-chair Terry Reintke notes that the rise of the far right would “make it harder to find majorities to protect the climate, improve social affairs or take clear positions against authoritarian governments.”

There is also the possibility that ECR (of N-VA) and ID (of Vlaams Belang) merge to increase their influence in Parliament. But that seems unlikely, because there is a great division between the groups. Especially in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The question is also which group Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s MPs will join. They left the Christian Democratic EPP in 2021. In order to be able to leave their mark on legislation, it is best to become a member of a political group. Clarity will probably come after the June ballot box.

The size of the political groups is not only important for the laws that Parliament votes on. They also determine the top jobs in the EU. In this way, the distribution of European Commissioners follows the balance of power of Parliament. They must also receive approval from parliamentarians after a hearing.

Free unlimited access to Showbytes? Which can!

Log in or create an account and never miss anything from the stars.

Yes, I want free unlimited access