Propaganda or growing self-confidence: why Hamas rejects the ceasefire

For a moment there was hope, and after almost seven months of war a ceasefire in Gaza seemed to be in the works. The US government spoke of a ‘generous offer’ from Israel. But on Wednesday evening, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said from Lebanon that the militant movement rejected the latest proposal. For the time being, hope is gone, although Hamas hastened in a second statement to say that it wanted to continue negotiations with Israel.

This ‘no’ cannot be called a surprise, on the contrary. In fact, the demands of the group – which is on the terrorist list in the US and the EU – have been the same for months. The first: withdrawal of all Israeli forces from occupied Gaza. Two: ending the war completely (and therefore not temporarily), so that Hamas remains lord and master in the strip. Three: unhindered passage of displaced Palestinians from south to north. Israel has been accommodating only on that last point.

The details of the rejected proposal are not known, but the contours are. In the first phase of the plan, drawn up by Egypt, Hamas would release 33 hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting of about six weeks. In phases two and three, Israel would then have to withdraw from parts of Gaza in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages and an extension of the truce to several months or even a year.

Ostrich behavior

You could accuse Hamas of blind obstinacy and ostrich behavior, now that the death toll has risen to more than 34,000 and the humanitarian suffering caused by the Israeli bombing is incalculable. Hospitals hardly manage to register the deaths anymore. The north is still teetering on the brink of famine, although the UN organization UNRWA reports that there has recently been more food for sale on the local market. A real problem is that many citizens do not have cash to do their shopping.

Anger is growing among Palestinians. “I pray every day that God will punish whoever put us in this situation,” a resident of Rafah told the Daily Mail last week. Financial Times. “I pray every day for the death of Sinwar (Hamas leader, ed.).”

In a recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, Hamas is declining in popularity both in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. In November, 43 percent of Gazans supported the movement; that has since fallen by about 10 percentage points.

Irritation

On the other hand, everyone could have seen this week’s ‘no’ coming from a mile away. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that his war cabinet plans to invade Rafah in South Gaza anyway, truce or no truce. This attitude led to great irritation in Qatar, which has been mediating between the warring parties for months. How can you ask Hamas to put down its weapons when you yourself have the knife between your teeth?

“A Rafah operation stands in the way of a deal,” an anonymous Qatari negotiator told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who completed a diplomatic tour of the region this week, also came to Netanyahu with that message.

Wars usually end when both sides think they can no longer win, but that moment seems a long way off. Netanyahu boasts of a ‘total victory’, while Hamas thinks the clock is ticking in his favor. A Hamas official claimed in late April that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar briefly left the tunnels and showed up on the street to greet his fighters. Propaganda? Quite possible, but it can also be a sign of growing self-confidence.

Trump cards

Unlike in November, at the time of the first (and for the time being only) ceasefire, Hamas thinks the political tide is in favor, says Palestine expert Mouin Rabbani, affiliated with the pan-Arab web platform Jadaliyya. “They see the protests against Netanyahu in Israel and the growing pressure on Israel internationally. Compare that with November: then Western governments still supported Israel unconditionally.”

In the eyes of Hamas, the time has not yet come to sign for a truce. Because the hostages are their only ‘trump cards’, Sinwar and his associates will try to hold on to them as long as possible. They are asking for the top price for release, complete withdrawal, and Israel is not prepared to do that for the time being.