Israel and US are in a grip on each other over war in Gaza

The relationship between Israel and the United States has fallen below zero. As long as the Israelis continue the war in Gaza, President Joe Biden will be saddled with a “problem from hell.”

Israel has had an unstable relationship with the United States for decades, with the irregular rhythm of peaks and valleys depending on who is at the helm in both countries and which fire is raging in the Middle East. Relations plunged to a new low last week after President Joe Biden threatened to suspend arms deliveries to Israel if the country launches an offensive on Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza Strip.

With his threat, Biden drew a red line, although he did not use that loaded expression. He realizes all too well that he is walking a tightrope. Because when will Israel cross the red line? Last week it sent tanks to the border post near Rafah and bombed large parts of the city. About 80,000 Palestinians fled after an Israeli evacuation order. However, Biden judged that the operations remained within limits.

Biden is saddled with a ‘problem from hell’, as ex-journalist Samantha Power described the dilemma faced by a number of presidents in 2002. In her book of the same name, Power illustrated the American efforts not to mention crimes against humanity – from the Armenian genocide to the genocide in Rwanda to the ethnic cleansing in Kosovo – for fear that they would be forced to intervene militarily.

Biden’s Democratic predecessors – Bill Clinton and Barack Obama – both also had such a hellish problem. Clinton turned a blind eye to the 1994 Rwandan genocide and even banned the use of the term. Obama drew a red line if the Syrian regime would use poison gas, but did nothing when that happened in 2013. Much to the frustration of Power, who at the time was American ambassador to the United Nations.

Power is now the big boss of USAID, the American development cooperation agency. In April, she became the first top US official to publicly say there was famine in the Gaza Strip. In doing so, she indirectly fueled dissatisfaction in the US about the handling of the crisis in the Middle East. The president was accused of having held his hand over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for too long.

With his threatened arms boycott, Biden thought he would put the knife to Netanyahu’s throat and avert a bloody offensive against Rafah. But Netanyahu reacted noticeably belligerently to the unofficial ultimatum. “If we have to stand alone, we stand alone,” he said. ‘If necessary we will fight with our fingernails. But we have much more than that.’ The Israeli army says it has sufficient weapons and ammunition to get the job done in Rafah.

It has launched a hunt for Hamas in Rafah, which has reportedly entrenched itself in the city. With a large-scale offensive, Netanyahu hopes to decapitate the Palestinian organization, which was his ultimate goal after the bloody terrorist attack of October 7. Experts warn that Rafah is far from the last Hamas stronghold, as Israel claims. Many militants are said to have found shelter elsewhere in the Gaza Strip.

However, there is more to Netanyahu than just the fight against Hamas. He is under pressure from his radical coalition partners to continue the war. If they withdraw their support, Netanyahu risks losing power. Then he threatens to end up in jail for corruption. Netanyahu is also accused of underestimating the threat from Hamas. In an interview on Friday, he said that mistakes had been made, without elaborating on his own responsibility.

Biden has also focused on the ballot box in his approach to the war in the Gaza Strip. He fears he will lose the presidential race against Donald Trump in November if he does not quickly get the crisis under control. In the recent primaries, many Democratic supporters cast unaffiliated votes to protest the White House’s pro-Israel stance. The threat of an arms boycott is an attempt to appease that left flank.

The only alternative the US sees is a ceasefire, even if only for a few weeks. That can take the pressure off. But the negotiations in the Egyptian capital Cairo are not making any progress. Israel and Hamas accuse each other of making unattainable demands, to the frustration of the Americans sitting at the table. Relations between Israel and the US have fallen below freezing, and after a turbulent week, Netanyahu and Biden are in a headlock.