Geopolitical Tensions on Rise as China Recklessly Targets Taiwan

China has been relentlessly pursuing its expansive territorial claims, asserting its sovereignty through a slew of policies and legislation. At the heart of these territorial ambitions lies Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, a solitary island cleaved from the mainland by the Taiwan Strait. Here, the narrative of expansionism unfolds starkly, as Beijing lays claim to territories beyond its sovereign reach.

In 1949, following a seismic shift in power, Mao Zedong’s Communist forces usurped the reins of governance, compelling the nationalist government under Chiang Kai-shek and his adherents to seek refuge in Taiwan. There, amidst the azure stretches of the Pacific, they erected a new bastion of rule. Since the 1990s, following decades of martial governance under the aegis of Chiang’s Kuomintang (KMT) from 1949 to 1987, Taiwan has blossomed into a beacon of democracy.

Yet, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), under the Communist cloak, persists in its portrayal of Taiwan as a wayward fragment of its historical expansion. The rhetoric of “peaceful reunification with Taiwan” has echoed since the 1970s, yet it has gained a sharper, more urgent tone under Xi Jinping’s leadership. Xi’s vision of expansionism mischievously termed as ‘unification’ diverges markedly from the paths followed by his predecessors. Xi’s stance on Taiwan has steepened in a rigorously assertive and militaristic strategy that has increased the geopolitical tension across the South China Sea.

Since 2016, the Cross-Strait relations have been marked by growing acrimony, beginning with Tsai Ing-wen’s ascent to the presidency of Taiwan under the banner of the Democratic People’s Party (DPP). This party, historically allied with the call for Taiwan’s formal independence, currently holds a stance of maintaining the ‘status quo’ in its interactions with China. This stands in stark contrast to the Kuomintang, which has preserved a pro-China orientation, favoring amicable relations without pushing for unification.

In response to President Tsai’s refusal to affirm the ‘One China’ policy, Beijing severed all diplomatic dialogues with Taipei, casting a shadow of isolation over Taiwan by opposing its participation in international forums and pressing countries that recognize or maintain formal interactions with Taiwan’s self- governing body. The strengthening of Taiwan’s ties with the United States during Tsai Ing-wen’s tenure has further fueled China’s aggression.

In 2019, Xi Jinping put forth the “One Country, Two Systems” model, mirroring Hong Kong’s framework, as a blueprint for Taiwan’s integration. This proposal forms a cornerstone of Xi’s vision for a rejuvenated China by 2049. Yet, this proposal was met with strong resistance in Taipei, outrightly rejected by Ing-wen herself. Beijing’s response has been a ramp-up in its intimidation tactics, notably through an unprecedented number of incursions by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) starting from 2020 This has been perceived by Taiwan as a threat. But Beijing wrongly defends these frequent military incursions as exercises of its sovereign rights.

The year 2021 marked the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), during which Xi reiterated the “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan as a “historic mission” of the CCP, though he stopped short of specifying a timeline. The intensity of aircraft incursions doubled the following year, with 1,727 warplanes, including nuclear-capable bombers, entering the ADIZ. The year 2022 saw the publication of Xi Jinping’s White Paper on “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era,” which not only intensified but also codified China’s coercive strategies. Unlike its predecessors issued in 1993 and 2000, this document ties the reunification with Taiwan to the broader goal of Chinese rejuvenation by 2049, aiming to rectify the historical error of foreign encroachment.

Moving away from the prior commitment to purely peaceful means, the paper still prioritises peaceful reunification but does not dismiss the use of force, if necessary. Additionally, it labels any separatist movements as criminal acts of secession.

This evolving stance on Taiwan increases the likelihood of military escalation in Beijing’s efforts for territorial annexation. Many experts now believe Beijing might resort to military action to achieve reunification, although the timeline remains a subject of debate. Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, tensions escalated towards potential military conflict. Beijing’s reaction included “precision missile strikes” near Taiwanese waters, declared as part of a military drill—a first in the history of these confrontations.

A series of Chinese military exercises have been observed near Taiwan, serving a dual purpose of military readiness and strategic intimidation. These acts have become normalized components of China’s gray-zone tactics aimed at pressuring Taiwan. Moreover, economic levers have also been employed, with China halting over 2,000 Taiwanese imports and cutting exports, tightening the noose around Taiwan’s economy.

Beijing’s military endeavors near Taiwan have intensified, signaling a hardening of its stand to reunify the island with the mainland through force. In the shadow of the January 2024 elections, China’s intrusive maneuvers manifested in cyber-attacks and a disinformation campaign aimed at sowing discord within Taipei. This propaganda frames the electoral choice as a stark dichotomy: align with Beijing or face war. Lai Ching-te, the former Vice President and now the president-elect from the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), was labeled a “separatist” by Beijing in an effort to erode his popular support. Despite these machinations, Lai secured the mandate of Taipei’s population, reflecting a resounding rejection of Beijing’s tactics.

This year, Beijing’s military budget surged by 7.2 per cent, indicating an increase in aggression towards Taiwan. During the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting in March, Premier Li Qiang’s report conspicuously omitted any mention of “peaceful” reunification, hinting at a gravitation towards more forceful reunification strategies. The persistent military incursions near Taiwan over the last four years mirror this shift , marking a departure from previous approaches to reunification, now veering towards military confrontation.

This year, Beijing’s shadowy maneuvers extend across the sky and sea around Taiwan, manifesting in the launch of ‘spy’ balloon arrays over Taiwanese airspace and the regular patrol of aircraft and warships. These acts, together with the encroachment of dual-use surveillance vessels, are now part of the frequent efforts to push back Taiwan’s ruling establishment. According to a recent report from Taiwan’s defense ministry, these actions are emblematic of China’s irregular gray-zone tactics designed to wear the island nation. Just in April 2024, Chinese military aircraft and naval vessels were detected near Taiwan 207 and 144 times respectively. Furthermore, China has unilaterally opened new air routes close to Taiwanese islands, jeopardizing flight safety.

Amidst these tensions, a historic meeting unfolded in Beijing between Xi Jinping and former Taiwanese president and Opposition leader, Ma Jing-Yeou of the Kuomintang, a first of its kind. Leveraging the KMT’s warmer ties with Beijing, Xi advocated for reunification, proclaiming that “external interference cannot halt the historic tide of the family and country’s reunion.” This meeting occurred just a month before Lai Ching-te from the Democratic People’s Party is scheduled to take his presidential oath, underscoring China’s ongoing efforts to sway cross-strait dynamics as part of its reunification strategy.