The price of pork in stores has been fairly stable at around 120 points for several months. The industrial price and farm gate price have fallen in recent months, by 3 and 2% respectively.
Price development
The consumer price has fluctuated around 120 points in recent months. In December it reached 121 points, which is related to the seasonal pattern: around the holidays, prices are generally a few points lower than during the rest of the year. The index in January 2024 was 120 points, 5% higher than the year before (January 2023). The upward trend that started around the start of the war in Ukraine has thus stabilized.
The industrial price and ex-farm price actually showed a declining pattern in the last six months, dropping from the peak of 161 in July 2023 to 141 points (industrial price), and from 163 in July 2023 to 135 points (ex-farm price). This trend therefore deviates from that of the retail price for pork, but it is a given that the retail price has its own dynamics.
Industrial and farm gate prices have been declining since the summer of 2023. In the European Union, total pork production has fallen in the past two years, under pressure from high feed prices, outbreaks of African swine fever and increasing welfare requirements. However, production appears to be stabilizing, which is reducing price pressure. Moreover, feed prices have already fallen by 25% since their peak in the summer of 2022; These have also fallen by approximately 6% in the last six months. This offers scope for lower farm prices, while farmers’ incomes are not immediately put under pressure. Given the developments on the European pig market, there appears to be a fairly stable situation in the coming months. Under pressure from favorable prices, European pig production is expected to increase, which could, however, lead to price pressure in the next few years.
Source: Agrimatie
