Russia turns to hybrid warfare in Europe: “Now is their moment”

In the German town of Grafenwöhr, hidden among the forests of Northern Bavaria, there is little to see for the average passer-by. You can drive right past it. But to the west and south of the village stretches a US military base that is the US’s main training area in Europe. Ukrainians learn how to deal with the American M1 Abrams tanks.

Last month, Bavarian police arrested two men suspected of spying on the base with the intention of carrying out an attack there later. The suspects, Dieter S. (39) and Alexander J. (37), both have German and Russian nationalities. “Since October, Dieter S. has exchanged information with a person associated with a Russian secret service,” the German Federal Prosecutor’s Office announced after the arrests. “They talked about possible sabotage actions to undermine Germany’s military support to Ukraine.” Dieter S., who fought alongside pro-Russian separatist militias in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, between 2014 and 2016, discussed attacks on military infrastructure and industrial estates in Germany with his Russian contact. He wanted to hit them with explosives or arson. From March he received the help of the other suspect for his espionage activities.

The minister’s car

The German arrests were not an isolated case. In March, London’s Metropolitan Police arrested two young Britons who had set fire to courier companies in east London. The affected companies are linked to Ukraine.

One of the suspects is also said to have recruited other people to provide support to a ‘foreign intelligence service’. Three others were charged in that case, albeit for less serious offences. The British Foreign Office summoned the Russian ambassador about the matter. The (preparations for) sabotages come on top of other Russian-coordinated actions in the West, such as disinformation campaigns, hackings and electronic warfare through the disruption of GPS signals. The big difference is that these incidents, no matter how serious and disruptive they may be, always remain ‘virtual’. With the arsons and the reconnaissance of targets, the Kremlin also ventures into physical actions.

The sabotages come on top of other Russian-coordinated actions in the West, such as disinformation campaigns, hackings and electronic warfare through the disruption of GPS signals

Sometimes it concerns relatively small facts that can be especially intimidating. Last year, the Estonian Interior Minister’s car windows were smashed. That of a journalist in Estonia also had to suffer. That was the work of a group of “ten people acting on behalf of a Russian secret service,” according to the Estonian intelligence service Kapo. “They organized a hybrid operation against the security of Estonia. The goal was to spread fear and create tension in our society. The arrested people gathered information to prepare attacks, and some of these were carried out.”

The Czech Railways

Last week, NATO expressed its “deep concern” about the incidents. “They are part of an intensification of activities that Russia is carrying out across the Euro-Atlantic area. They pose a threat to the security of the allied countries.” Belgian State Security confirms the increased aggressiveness and boldness of Russian actions. It is a recent phenomenon that has mainly unfolded this year, the service notes, but so far no sabotage actions have been carried out in our country. The head of Germany’s domestic intelligence service also notices the change. “Russia now seems to feel comfortable carrying out operations on European territory that could lead to a lot of damage,” he said, according to the newspaper The Financial Times at a security conference held in April. The Czech Republic also faced attacks on the signaling system of its railway network.

“Of course Russia focuses on logistics axes,” says Kacper Rekawek, research leader ‘Current and emerging threats’ at the think tank International Center for Counter-Terrorism in The Hague. “All infrastructure through which goods pass is interesting to them. They want to jeopardize support for Ukraine, and now it is crunch time. For example, the Ukrainians have not yet received everything promised from the US. With elections in Europe and the US and the NATO summit coming up in the summer, they believe this is the time to step up actions.” It is still unclear whether some incidents linked to Moscow is correct. The investigation into a suspicious explosion in a grenade depot of the British arms giant BAE is still ongoing. After a fire in a Berlin metal factory and derailed trains carrying iron ore in northern Sweden, Russia was also looked at, but sabotage has now been ruled out. This (temporary) vagueness about actions also suits Russia well, because it contributes to the image of an enemy that dares to go far.

This vagueness about actions also suits Russia well, because it contributes to the image of an enemy who dares to go far.

Soviet methods

“There is a lot of talk about hybrid warfare (including disinformation and smaller-scale physical actions, ed.), as if it were a new, separate element in Russia’s strategy,” says Rekawek. “But it is risky to regard that as a separate fact. All possible means are used in what I call ‘political warfare’. The use of ‘proxies’ for acts of sabotage and terror abroad was commonplace during the Soviet Union. It allowed the regime to deny involvement in certain facts. That method is back. Now people are calling on individuals who went to Ukraine in 2014 to fight with the Russians. This happened in the same period as the jihadis who joined the Islamic State, so it has remained underexposed. Most people who went to fight with the Russians had a rather strange experience because they never really got involved in the fighting. They arrived too late, or they were not deployed because they wanted to avoid them being killed and thus creating bad PR. But during that period certain networks emerged between Western Europeans and Russians. These contacts were subsequently placed in the refrigerator and can now be switched on again.”