His speech lasted ten minutes, exactly a year ago. The parade that followed was one in a minor key. With only one T-34 tank. Furthermore, there was little sign of the traditional great military display on ‘Victory Day’, which commemorates Russia’s defeat of Nazi Germany on May 9, 1945. Ukrainian President Zelensky took the opportunity again on Wednesday to call Putin himself a Nazi.
We can certainly expect a different Putin than last year, experts predict. One who feels strengthened by the people now that his presidential term has been extended again.
“We should not expect a message of reconciliation or imminent negotiations from Putin. The Kremlin remains combative, as we saw on Tuesday night with a new major wave of attacks on Ukraine. Putin will, as always, shoot straight at the West,” thinks Russia expert Professor Ria Laenen (KU Leuven). And he will speak threatening language.
(Read more below the photos)
Russia shows off an impressive column of Western-supplied tanks and armored personnel carriers captured in Ukraine — © EPA-EFE
© AFP
© AFP
Defense specialist and ex-colonel Roger Housen also expects few concrete statements about the war, but he does expect a sneer at the West. “He may reiterate that Russia must do everything it can to stop Western attempts to break power. And that Russia, despite the Western support that Ukraine receives, is making progress on the ground.”
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Things are currently looking brighter for Russia than they were a year ago, while Ukraine can only hope that it will soon receive additional material to hold out.
“Ukraine’s major spring offensive announced last spring ultimately became a summer offensive. Some progress was made, but not as expected. Despite the Western tanks and armored personnel carriers they received,” says Housen.
Russia, for its part, captured a territory as large as a quarter of the province of Flemish Brabant and less than a thousandth of the total Ukrainian territory from January to May this year. Some small breaches have been made at the front, but nothing more than that.
Negotiations
The question remains whether a major offensive is in the pipeline and whether Putin will show his cards on ‘Victory Day’. “I think that the Russian plans for the impending offensive have already been determined for a while – and the outcome of the elections, of course, too – so they are going to carry out what was planned anyway, I suspect,” says professor of international relations Sven Biscop of Ghent University and the Egmont Institute.
What will certainly not be mentioned in Putin’s speech on Thursday is a ceasefire, all experts agree on that.
Although ex-colonel Roger Housen does not rule out that this could be on the table later this year. “If the Russians continue to make slow progress and reach the western border of the Donbas, Putin could well open the door to negotiations. “Under the guise of having achieved what he wanted to achieve. But that is just looking at coffee grounds.”
The question is whether Ukraine will then be prepared to hold talks. Because by then they normally have masses of Western weapons, tanks and planes.
