Russian writer Mikhail Shishkin: “The broken Ukrainians can rise up against Zelensky”

Mikhail Shishkin has lived in Basel, Switzerland, since 2015, an exile he owes to the fact that for years he has expressed his aversion to “Vladimir Putin and his pyramid of thieves who lock people up because of their political beliefs”. Two years ago he believed that the demise of Putin’s regime was imminent and that democratic Ukraine would drive out Russian troops – thanks to Europe and the United States. Now the writer is desperate. Putin could occupy the Ukrainian territories he currently controls for a long time. Once again, thanks to Europe and the US, Shishkin’s reasoning is not without cynicism.

“At the time of the large-scale Russian invasion, there was a huge wave of solidarity in the West. I was convinced that with Western help, Ukraine would win the war and Putin would suffer a defeat. I never would have dared to imagine that those feelings of solidarity would melt away so quickly. Even the Poles have let the Ukrainians down: just look at the Polish farmers who are closing their borders to stop competition from Ukrainian crops. And worst of all: the leaders of the democratic countries do not want Russia to lose the war. Otherwise they would have long ago given Ukraine the weapons to push Russia back completely.”

Why would European leaders want to avoid Putin’s defeat?

“The West’s great nightmare is that chaos and anarchy will break out in Russia and there will be total uncertainty about the nuclear arsenal. Moreover, Europe and the US are tired of war. And Russia would rather negotiate: it is the strongest militarily and will be able to make all kinds of demands.”

“We have reached a situation where only Zelensky wants to continue the war. That won’t last long, because the West has found a smart tactic to force Zelensky to the negotiating table: give him just enough weapons to defend himself, but not enough firepower to go on the offensive again.”

Can those 61 billion dollars in extra American aid and the new European arms deliveries no longer make a difference?

“It’s a bizarre form of communication. Western countries send extra weapons, but basically they say: ‘Mr. Zelensky, there are limits to our help. This is our last relief package, it’s time for you to come to the table.’”

Is a peace agreement with Putin worth more than a scrap of paper? What guarantees will Ukraine receive that the Russian army will not unleash a new offensive in a few months?

“There are no guarantees in this game. A guarantee from Putin is worth as much as a lie. What we will get is a new Cold War where the current front line freezes over. Because Putin and Russia are so unpredictable, I expect this new Cold War to be messy and erratic. Just like the conflict between Israel and Palestine, the battle over Ukraine will flare up again regularly. Every generation will experience its own war, and each outbreak will be more horrific than the last. True peace is not possible.”

Will the Ukrainians be able to live with a peace deal that means permanently ceding Crimea and much of their eastern territory?

“The Ukrainian population is being beaten in all kinds of ways. Bombs on their cities, thousands killed, energy shortages, families torn apart because many women and children live abroad. They are also tired of the war. You notice it in the fact that it is increasingly difficult to mobilize young people.”

“Putin knows very well that Russia can deploy many more troops and that Ukraine cannot hold out for more than one or two years. A very delicate situation arises for Zelensky: he will never be able to fulfill his promise to regain the entire territory. I do not rule out that the many broken Ukrainians will start a new Maidan against him. Zelensky is not unapproachable, on the contrary: the history books are full of leaders who were first national heroes, but then dramatically fell from their pedestal.”

And Putin? Will he then emerge victorious from the war?

“Putin is a dictator: he can say whatever he wants. If he says he won the war, he won the war. Zelensky is a democrat who must be held accountable, Putin is a dictator who can shit on the heads of his citizens. In Ukraine, power depends on the population, in Russia, the population depends on power. It’s as in 1984 from Orwell: people keep quiet and when asked, they cheer for their dictator. A mega-Stockholm syndrome: the dictator holds the entire population hostage and to avoid being murdered, the Russians have come to love their dictator.”

Why then does Putin want to negotiate a ceasefire?

“Because he realizes that there is not much ground left to gain in Ukraine. He may soon launch a new offensive, but everything indicates that this will be difficult. Despite an enormous war effort, the Russian army was only able to conquer a few villages in recent months. Within weeks, Putin will have modern and sophisticated NATO weapons in front of him, making it almost impossible to conquer any more villages, let alone large cities.”

Is there nothing that threatens Putin’s position?

“Who knows: the Kremlin is a huge black box. Outside of a very small group, no one knows what is going on there. It is clear that Putin is not a popular czar. Do you remember Saturday, June 24, the day that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner troops advanced on Moscow? Those troops were applauded along the way and received with flowers and ice cream. Few wanted to protect Putin that day. In other words: Russia is ready for a new czar, but it is not yet clear who that will be. Prigozhin is dead. Perhaps it will be the extremist nationalist and war criminal Igor Girkin. He is now in prison, but there is no doubt that he is capable of bringing order with a firm hand. I dare not predict anything.”

“It is clear that there will be no moderate figure after Putin. The new Tsar also needs enemies and will tell the Russians that the Americans, British and French want to destroy the nation. And what is also clear: the West will learn to live with the new tsar; as long as it ensures that no one starts tinkering with nuclear weapons.”

The first sentence of your new book is telling: “It is painful to be a Russian.” What Do You Mean By That?

“Russian culture is one of the big losers of this war. Russian is now considered a language of war. It feels like the ground has disappeared under my feet. All the books my fellow writers and I have written over the past thirty years have not been able to stop the war. I often wonder: Is there any point in writing books in Russian?

And what is the answer?

“What else can I do but write? It is an act of presence, my personal fight against the regime. To me, silence would amount to support for Putin. But there is also a bigger fight going on to which I want to contribute: together with other Russian writers, I want to restore the dignity of Russian literature. Our language does not belong to Putin, but is part of the world heritage.”

“It is with that language that young Russian writers will describe the war. This is crucial to closing the gap between Russians and Ukrainians. Because that divide deepens every day: with every new bomb, with every fallen Ukrainian soldier and with every maimed civilian, the hatred grows. Ultimately, it will be Ukrainian and Russian artists who will have to build a bridge. It may be too late for my generation of writers, but it is important that we fight now for the free Russian literature of the future. Also to prevent Western leaders from developing erroneous ideas about Russia again.”

Stray thoughts?

“For years, prominent European leaders harbored the delusion that with Putin’s regime you could pursue stability, prosperity and peace. While Russian writers and journalists warned all the time about the deceitfulness and aggressiveness of that regime, world leaders went to Moscow to conclude trade deals. They were all present at the 2014 Olympic Games in Sochi. I still remember that Switzerland had built a beautiful chalet for the occasion to receive Putin’s thugs. Barely a day after those Games, the invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine began. And apparently even that was not a clear signal to give up naivety. The moment Putin realized he could conquer all of Ukraine was during the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. Once again many world leaders were present. By then, thousands of civilians had already been killed in Ukraine. Together with many other Russian opponents, I tried to set up a boycott. In vain. “Politics and morality must be separated from pleasure,” was the message from European leaders. It was clear to Putin: no one would stand in his way.”

Why were Western leaders so naive then?

“Good question. No idea. Because the truth about Putin was blatant all these years. Maybe you should ask them.”

With the European elections approaching, far-right parties are showing gains in the polls. Quite a few right-wing populist politicians have sympathies for and financial ties with the Kremlin. That doesn’t seem to deter their voters.

“I regularly meet people in Western countries who think Putin is great. According to them, he is a great leader who stands up for their principles: for Christian values, against American imperialism and against the ‘madness’ of the woke culture and the ‘supremacy’ of the LGBTI community. What amazes me is the selective blindness of those far right parties and their voters. Surely they must now realize that Putin is responsible for the deaths of thousands of Ukrainian children and other gross war crimes? Don’t they realize that Putin is not an ally but a mass murderer?”

You end your book with a chapter on the murdered opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Your words speak of desperation.

“What else can we feel? Navalny was our great hope and that hope has been dashed. The murder proves that the regime is willing to kill anyone. Murder is once again a standard political tool in Russia. Not so long ago, Navalny could still participate in presidential elections. But that Russia no longer exists. Russia is a killing pit and that means violence is the only remaining means of opposition. You can already see that Russian units are also fighting in the Ukrainian army. Russians kill other Russians: just like a hundred years ago in the civil war. Bloody Russian history seems to repeat itself again and again.”

Mikhail Shishkin, My Russia, war or peaceQuerido.