Russia appears to be preparing offensive against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv: “50,000 soldiers gathered in border region” | War Ukraine and Russia

This would involve more than 31,000 troops in Belgorod, 10,000 in Kursk and 8,000 in Bryansk, where they form the so-called ‘Northern Grouping of Armed Forces’.

This includes men and equipment from the ‘Leningrad Military District’ (LMD), which Russian President Vladimir Putin re-created at the end of February. But parts of other army units are also seconded to the region, such as the 44th Army Corps, the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.

According to Zvizdets Manhustoe, the Russian army pretends to unload troops and equipment at train stations in remote areas of the Kursk region. It then has the troops march to the Belgorod region – near Kharkiv – where they will be deployed.

It is also notable that air, drone and missile attacks have recently increased on regions along Ukraine’s northeastern border. In addition to Kharkiv, this includes Chernihiv and Sumy.

However, Zvizdets Manhoestoe does not believe that the Russians can take Kharkiv. He suspects that there will be limited attacks in the border region.

This is also the analysis of Ukrainian and American intelligence officials, as well as the American think tank ‘Institute for the Study of War’ (ISW). The latter wrote in a report last week that it is “very unlikely” that the Russians will conquer major Ukrainian cities in the near future.