Rarely have elections in Belgium taken place in such a tense and dangerous international context, with the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. And yet the big news in a so far boring campaign is the staged bromance of Sammy Mahdi and Georges-Louis Bouchez! Would there really be voters who would be interested in that? But beware of the backlash! The crisis provoked by Hamas’ terrorist attack against Israel on October 7, followed by the escalation by Netanyahu’s government, could also have an impact on the elections. We see that in the United States. President Biden’s re-election is jeopardized by the discontent of the Muslim community and the left wing of the Democratic party. They blame him for failing to put an end to the Israeli army’s bloody attacks in the Gaza Strip. The expansion of the protest movement in the universities makes the situation even more delicate and precarious.
Spread out order of battle
President Biden is not the only one who should worry. Last week, Labor achieved huge successes in local elections in a number of cities and districts across the UK. But British election experts note that the Social Democratic Party is doing less well than expected or even losing ground in some places, namely in districts with a large Muslim community. The British Greens scored well there, just as in places where many students live. The Workers Party of Britain (WPB), a radical left and pro-Palestinian party, also received elected officials at local level for the first time, at the expense of the Social Democrats. Labor leader and prime minister-designate Keir Starmer admitted in interviews that his party will need to regain the trust of those disaffected voters before the legislative elections later this year.
In France, the left has formed a front in the 2022 legislative elections, but is approaching the European elections in a staggered order. Things have long since ceased to exist between La France insoumise (LFI), the radical left movement of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and the Socialist Party and its allies, led by Raphaël Glucksmann. For his supporters, this outgoing MP, who has been very active in international issues, embodies the hope for a renaissance of social democracy in France. The war in Gaza has deepened the rift between the pro-Palestinian LFI and the PS, which takes a more balanced position.
During the May Day celebrations, these tensions took a very nasty turn. Raphaël Glucksmann, himself a Jew, was chased from the procession in which he was to join by extreme left-wing militants, who insulted him and bombarded him with projectiles. In recent days, the pro-Palestinian movement, both in France and the United States, has gained increasing traction in certain universities. The president of the Council of Jewish Institutions in France, Yonathan Arfi, claimed on RTL that Jewish students are intimidated and “avoid going to class.”
Phone call
If it rains in Paris, it drips in Brussels, popular wisdom says. At Flemish and French-speaking universities, the number of students condemning the attitude of the Israeli government and demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza is currently growing. This week will probably be crucial for the further course of the actions.
On the political level, the latest poll by RTBF-La Libre confirms the sharp decline of the PS in Brussels and the rise of the PTB in the capital region – a phenomenon that is said to be a consequence of the outspoken pro-Palestinian position of the communists. But the consequences are not limited to the capital. Even if the PS holds out in Wallonia and the MR scores less well than expected, the Liberals could become the largest French-speaking family in the Chamber according to the same poll, something we have not seen since 2007. If that’s true, Sammy Mahdi and Georges-Louis Bouchez will have a lot to discuss during the phone call they promised each other on the evening of June 9.
