AEX opens positively, the European economy is central today

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Thanks to good sentiment around tech shares in America and Hong Kong, the AEX seems to have a positive opening today.

The AEX future is at +0.5% around a quarter past eight. How are the other markets doing?

  • European futures are flat to slightly positive, AEX is a positive outlier
  • In Asia, most indices remain close to home, except Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +2.3%
  • Wall Street was open yesterday and ended mixed: S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq +0.1%
  • A significant movement on the dollar and interest rate front: EUR/USD falls (dollar rises) to $1.0734 and the US 10-year yield rose yesterday by 10 basis points to 4.31%
  • The oil price is on the rise again: Brent is approaching $87
  • Gold set an all-time high yesterday and is trading slightly below that today
  • Bitcoin takes a step back at $66,729

Overnight, one thing that stands out is the strong sentiment in Hong Kong, where tech shares such as Baidu (+2.4%) and Tencent (+2.0%) are doing well, but where smartphone maker Xiaomi steals the show with a 12% jump in price.

Xiaomi launched its first electric car last week, a Porsche-inspired sports car priced below $30,000 and below the Tesla Model 3. Demand for the car is high and investors would like to experience some of that success. The fact that Xiaomi is currently making a loss of almost $10,000 on every car sold is taken for granted.

In America too, it was mainly tech that kept its head above water. Chipmaker Micron received a price target increase from Bank of America and rose 5.5%. Alphabet (+3%) also did well. ASML was also one of the better funds on Wall Street yesterday; the share rose 2.2%.

Powell is in no hurry

Still, the overall mood in New York was lackluster, due to good economic news. Or rather, too good economic news. The ISM purchasing managers index unexpectedly turned positive – while the market was still expecting an improving, but on balance still pessimistic outcome.

That result was wrong on the stock market and had everything to do with comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday, who said he was in ‘no hurry’ to lower interest rates. Both last Friday’s PCE core inflation and this ISM index will only strengthen his attitude: the economy does not seem to really need that interest rate cut yet and the forces at work now appear to be inflationary rather than deflationary.

Four-day Shell trial

The Dutch purchasing managers index (PMI) also just arrived. This still indicates contraction, but at 49.7 the neutral position of 50 is now almost in sight. The Netherlands in itself is not market mover, but Germany and the Eurozone could be; those PMIs come in around ten.

There is little or no news from companies this week, although Shell watchers will get their money’s worth for four days. Today, Shell’s appeal begins in the case against Milieudefensie, which led to the ruling in 2021 that Shell must reduce its emissions by 45% until 2030. Shell starts the appeal with a fresh army of lawyers. House lawyer De Brauw Blackstone Westbroek, which lost the case in 2021, has been replaced by the British firm Clifford Chance.

News

The headlines of ABM Financial News

  • 08:12 UBS starts new share buyback program
  • 07:59 AEX probably starts slightly higher after the long Easter weekend
  • 07:48 Onward Medical submits de novo application to US FDA
  • 07:43 Corbion completes sale of emulsifier branch
  • 07:36 NX Filtration receives order in Canada
  • 07:25 Asian stock markets flat, but Hong Kong higher sharply
  • 07:16 Shrinkage of Dutch industry continues to decline
  • 07:06 European stock markets open virtually unchanged
  • 06:55 Dutch retail sales are increasing
  • 06:52 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
  • 06:52 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
  • 06:51 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • Apr 01 Wall Street starts April with a small loss
  • Apr 01 Red prices on Wall Street
  • Apr 01 Modec builds FPSO for Shell in Brazil
  • Apr 01 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
  • Apr 01 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
  • Apr 01 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • Apr 01 US construction spending down slightly
  • Apr 01 ISM: modest growth in US industry
  • Apr 01 S&P: American industry is growing slightly less fast
  • Apr 01 Video: Investors choose Italy and not Germany
  • Apr 01 Cautious start to the week on Wall Street in the making
  • Apr 01 Shortened trading week focused on figures for industry and the services sector
  • Apr 01 Japanese industry continues to shrink
  • Apr 01 Chinese stock exchange in green
  • Apr 01 Chinese industry is growing slightly faster
  • Apr 01 Last chance: vote for your favorite AEX share for April
  • Mar 31 Chinese industry is growing again
  • Mar 31 Powell sees no reason for Fed to rush rate cuts
  • March 31 AEX sets new records in shortened Easter week
  • March 29 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
  • March 29 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
  • March 29 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • March 29 Stock exchange view: more turnover expected for Fagron
  • Mar 29 US PCE inflation falls slightly, in line with expectations
  • Mar 29 Italian inflation up
  • Mar 29 Euronext takes stake in Global Rate Set Systems
  • March 29 These are the 11 winners of the IEX Golden Bull 2023
  • Mar 29 French inflation has fallen sharply
  • Mar 29 Green fairs in Asia but Europe remains closed due to Good Friday
  • Mar 29 Output prices of Dutch industry have fallen again
  • March 29 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
  • March 29 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
  • March 29 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • March 28 ASML warns investors about ‘mini-tender’ Tutanota
  • March 28 Wall Street with new records heading into the Easter long weekend
  • March 28 Stock market update: AEX on Wall Street
  • Mar 28 Oil significantly more expensive in the first quarter
  • Mar 28 Wall Street stays close to home
  • March 28 European stock markets with fresh records towards Easter
  • Mar 28 Multiple tenders for the largest wind farms in the North Sea

agenda

The European economy takes center stage today, with a series of purchasing managers’ indices – important indicators of economic activity – and a reality check for the ECB with the German inflation rate at 2 p.m.

  • 06:30 NL retail turnover in February
  • 07:30 NL purchasing managers index industry March (final)
  • 09:55 Dui purchasing managers index industry March (final)
  • 10:00 Eurozone purchasing managers index industry March (final)
  • 10:30 UK Purchasing Managers Index Industry March (final)
  • 2:00 PM Dui inflation March (provisional) 2.2%

The agenda for the rest of this short stock market week also has a high macroeconomic content, with the American payroll report as a strong conclusion:

Wednesday April 3

  • 01:30 Japan services purchasing managers index March (final)
  • 03:45 China purchasing managers index services March (final)
  • 08:00 OPEC+ meeting
  • 09:00 Heijmans annual meeting
  • 11:00 Eurozone inflation March (provisional, consensus 2.6%)
  • 11:00 Eurozone unemployment February
  • 1:00 PM US mortgage applications – weekly
  • 15:45 US Purchasing managers index industry S&P March (final)
  • 4:00 PM US purchasing managers index services ISM March (consensus 52.6)
  • 4:30 PM US Oil Stocks – Weekly
  • 18:10 US speech Jerome Powell

Thursday April 4

  • 09:55 Dui purchasing managers index services March (final)
  • 10:00 EU purchasing managers index services March (final)
  • 10:30 UK purchasing managers index services March (final)
  • 11:00 EU producer prices Feb
  • 2:30 PM US aid applications – weekly
  • 2:30 PM US trade balance Feb

Friday April 5

  • 00:00 Chinese fairs closed (Qingming Festival)
  • 00:00 IMF World Economic Outlook
  • 08:00 Dui factory orders February
  • 11:00 EU retail sales Feb
  • 2:30 PM US March jobs report (consensus +200K job growth, unemployment 3.9%)
  • 9:00 PM US consumer credit Feb

Short positions

The current top 10 short positions according to the AFM register (source: Shortsell.nl)

And then this

Trump in the dump

Not only the shares, but also the cars of EV maker Fisker are falling rapidly in value

India is hot

Don’t write off the self-driving Tesla, says Elon Musk. It will be ‘crushingly good’

The experts are becoming pessimistic. Is that good or bad news?

Pieter Kort is editor-in-chief of IEX Media. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments.


The article is in Dutch

Tags: AEX opens positively European economy central today

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