‘The trial is causing Trump some electoral damage’: America expert Kenneth Manusama

The trial surrounding the falsification of his accounts to pay an ex-mistress from the porn industry hush money has now lasted three weeks. In the dock, Donald Trump (77) listens obediently, but once outside the New York courtroom he still does not mince his words. Last Tuesday, the judge ordered him to pay the maximum fine for contempt of court: $9,000 for nine publications in which he attacked the chairman, the prosecution’s key witness, his former lawyer Michael Cohen, or jurors he believed were not impartial .

Trump ignored the fine and lashed out again during interviews on Wednesday, this time at the jury. In theory, the law also provides for a prison sentence of up to 30 days if the contempt of court continues. Would the judge be able and dare to go that far?

“That will be the big question. You would think that Donald Trump and his lawyers would be aware of that risk, but at the same time I think: maybe Trump is actually aiming for a prison sentence. Precisely because he has to sit in that courtroom, he complains a lot that he misses a lot of campaign days. So from the beginning he uses all the lawsuits to basically campaign. He therefore plays a bit of bluff poker in front of the court and challenges them: ‘test me’. It has become a pattern. He goes to great lengths to postpone proceedings or provoke judges.

“I think he is certainly aware of what he is doing. Of course, Trump always has to stir up his supporters a bit. I think that a prison sentence could be like a red rag to a bull in the eyes of his supporters, and that they would only become even more fanatical.

“At the same time, I do think that the judges will not dare to actually put him in jail, although there were reports that even the Secret Service, which is still responsible for the protection of the former president, was already planning what they are going to do if he has to go to jail.”

In your opinion, is the prosecutor’s case strong enough to obtain a criminal conviction?

“The prosecution has a strong case. During the past weeks of the trial it became clear that the gossip magazine National Enquirer for Trump a ‘catch & killsystem’ organized (‘capturing’ a potentially damaging story by buying the rights to it and then ‘killing’ it through agreements that prevent the paid person from telling the story to anyone else, MR). It also showed that Trump was aware of a plan to influence the elections from the start.

“The question is to what extent the prosecutors can demonstrate that the accounting was falsified for electoral reasons. Their case is a two-stage rocket. Tampering with the transfers may only be a legal offense. Only when it is proven that this was done with the aim of subverting the elections by circumventing campaign finance law, will it also become a crime. This second stage is the most difficult to demonstrate. There is also a chance that the case will end somewhere in the middle, with Trump merely being reprimanded for the violation with a fine.”

We now have to wait for the key witness, his former lawyer Michael Cohen. But is he, as an ex-convict, a reliable witness?

“Cohen was the one who carried out the accounting hush money scheme, according to Trump’s orders. (He must testify and prove this under oath at the trial, MR.) The former president and his lawyers dispute the reliability of his testimony because he was already in jail for lying to everyone and everything, even to Congress. His credibility also took a hit because he is very flaunting his personal anti-Trump attitude. He appears on all kinds of talk shows and has his own podcast. Trump’s lawyers will undoubtedly attack that hard.”

Because he has to attend the trial, Trump cannot campaign much. Does that hurt him, since President Biden is ahead of him in recent polls?

“Yes, the trend is indeed that Biden is overtaking him in the polls. So it does cause Trump some electoral damage. His hard core supporters naturally follow his lawsuits with indignation and will continue to vote for him.

“Yet there are other people who always need their dose of Trump during such a large meeting where a kind of sense of solidarity is created, including voters who he has lost over the past four years and whom he should actually bring back during the campaign. If he doesn’t visit them there, those voters will drop out. You have to remember that before 2016, many of those Trump supporters didn’t always vote for him either. If they just see him falling asleep in court like an old man, they get a little tired of him too. Then they could stay at home in November.”

Meanwhile, Trump resigned this week The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel cannot promise to accept the results before 2024. “If everything is fair, I will happily accept the results,” he said, “but if not, you have to fight for the right of the land.” Do you find this kind of language an implicit call for street violence in November?

“Yes, I think we have to assess that in light of the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. We already saw what this kind of rhetoric can lead to. This time too, his statements could lead to such actions. Trump himself knows exactly what he is doing by saying this now.

“I fear there is a risk of violence regardless of the outcome. If President Biden is re-elected, Trump’s supporters will take to the streets. And if Trump wins, there will also be counter-demonstrations and Trump will be able to, like a Timearticle argued, to send troops to the cities. In any case, there will be a lot of potential for violence in the months after the elections.”

Trump has already labeled left-wing activists as ‘vermin’ and ‘enemies from within’ during meetings. When The New York Times Asked the political historian Federico Finchelstein what he thought of that statement, he replied: “This is how fascists campaign.” How do you feel about that?

“Yes, I think so too. I conclude in my recent book Democracy of the Wild West (Bot Publishers, MR) also that there is a clear potential for a kind of American fascism. To label your political opponents as ‘vermin’ is to dehumanize them, an important facet of fascist language to stir up your own supporters and incite them to certain actions.”

The Supreme Court is now considering whether a president is immune. What are the consequences for his lawsuits?

“The immunity question concerns all possible election-subverting activities by Trump in 2020 and in 2021 up to the storming of the Capitol. Trump argues that he cannot be prosecuted for actions he took as president. The nine chief justices of the Supreme Court, with a majority of conservatives appointed by Trump, appear to have very different opinions, according to the latest hearing. They may not make their judgment until June.

“The outcome is important for the January 6, 2021 federal indictment against Trump, which is now on hold and will no longer have an outcome before the election regardless of their decision. Their judgment may also determine the power that subsequent presidents may or may not usurp. Suppose they judge that a president is completely immune, then he can do exactly what he wants if re-elected.”

Trump said this week that pro-Palestinian occupiers of the universities have not been dealt with hard enough. Can he benefit electorally from these protests, because President Biden in particular is in danger of losing his activist left flank?

“The Palestine-Israel story is indeed causing President Biden particular headaches because his young voters in particular are agitating against his government’s Gaza policy. Trump is therefore putting a lot of emphasis on it.

“Even as these occupations fizzle out, younger voters will remain a problematic demographic for both Trump and Biden as they are more likely to stay home. In any case, what happened at the universities this week will not contribute to a higher turnout, while the gains in the elections will be determined by the turnout of voters from both parties and independents. For example, a key state like Michigan also has many Arab Americans. If they stay home because of Gaza, Biden may have a problem with winning the state, but Trump may also have a problem with the perception of his criminal trial. These elections will be a game of margins in which various factors will play a role. In that respect, it has become a lot more complex than in 2016 and 2020.”