Is Netanyahu interested in an arms truce as long as Hamas leaders remain free?

The war of nerves over a ceasefire in Gaza continues in full swing on Wednesday. A text is on the table in Cairo that, according to the US and the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, almost completely matches the draft that Israel itself proposed last month. Hamas leaders surprised on Monday evening by announcing that the Israeli proposal is acceptable to them and that nothing stands in the way of an agreement on a long-term truce.

And yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unwilling to approve the text in its current form. On the contrary: in the past 48 hours he increased the military pressure on the negotiators. On Tuesday morning he sent tanks and ground troops to the southern border city of Rafah where one and a half million civilians are packed together. It was not a large-scale offensive, but a targeted attack on the border post with Egypt, which was captured after just a few hours. During the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, Israeli tanks also carried out heavy artillery attacks on Gaza City further north.

At the same time, Netanyahu only sent low-level negotiators to Cairo, who appear to have a mandate to magnify the remaining points of contention rather than accelerate the negotiations.

Not that these points of contention are unimportant. For example, there is disagreement about the pace at which 33 Israeli hostages should be released during the first six-week ceasefire phase. It concerns “the most vulnerable” hostages: women, female soldiers, older men, the sick and wounded. Israel wants three hostages released every three days; Hamas only wants to release three hostages every seven days. According to Israel, this gives the Hamas negotiators too much time and power. In that first phase, the modalities of a sustainable truce, which is referred to in the current text as “sustainably calm” is described as: ‘a lasting peace’. During those crucial talks, Israel wants to enforce guarantees that Hamas can no longer pose a security threat.

Delivery of bombs postponed

Another pending issue is whether Israel will have veto power over the Palestinian prisoners it must release in exchange for the hostages. Hamas also wants severely punished prisoners to be added to the list, but Israel is reluctant to do so for fear that the released Palestinians will immediately strengthen the Hamas ranks.

Finally, Israel does not want Palestinian displaced persons to simply be given the right to return to northern Gaza. The fear is that Hamas fighters will also mix with the displaced people, causing them to spread again throughout Gaza.

Although Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to make it clear in every possible way that these are crucial points, patience is dwindling among the other negotiators. This also applies to the US, which has stated that “there is no reason to assume that the latest points of contention cannot be resolved”.

To increase pressure, US government sources confirmed that a delivery of 3,500 bombs to Israel has been postponed. This would involve 1,700 bombs of 500 pounds and 1,800 of 2,000 pounds, very controversial because they have been used in densely populated neighborhoods in recent months and have caused many civilian casualties. Also a load of so-called ‘missile guidance kits’ which ensure that bombs can be used with precision, would not currently be supplied.

The American chief negotiator, CIA chief William Burns, will fly from Cairo to Tel Aviv on Wednesday to urge Netanyahu to act urgently. Mediator Egypt is also pushing for a quick truce. With the Israeli army controlling the Rafah border post, Egypt’s nervousness about the war has increased. Moreover, Cairo fears that an escalation in Rafah will lead to a huge flow of refugees.

“With our fingernails if necessary”

Despite this enormous international pressure, Netanyahu appears for the time being only interested in maneuvers to postpone the ceasefire. His restraint appears to have the unanimous support of the entire Israeli war cabinet, which also includes opposition leader Benny Gantz.

The main concern of Israeli leaders remains the presence of many Hamas fighters in Rafah. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, according to Israel the mastermind behind the murderous attacks of October 7, is also still at large. The fact that the armed structure would remain partially intact even after the signing of the ceasefire is too great a security risk for the Israeli war cabinet – and for many Israeli citizens – that could make a repeat of October 7 possible.

As long as Israel does not receive certainty about the neutralization of the Hamas military structure, a controversial offensive on Rafah seems preferable for Netanyahu to avoiding an unprecedented clash with his American allies. Or as an Israeli government source said on Wednesday Reuters said: “With or without American bombs, we will continue to fight, if necessary with our fingernails.”

Certainly for Prime Minister Netanyahu, the political dilemmas are becoming sharper by the hour. If he signs the current text of the ceasefire, many of his ministers will condemn him and the government will fall. This also means that he can be arrested at any time by the Israeli justice system because of a series of pending corruption files. If the Israeli prime minister chooses a major offensive on Rafah, he will risk the lives of the hostages and will even be regarded as an international pariah by his American ally.