Closing call: The AEX is rising today, but it’s not looking good

Closing call: The AEX is rising today, but it’s not looking good
Closing call: The AEX is rising today, but it’s not looking good

After flirting with the red shortly before closing, the AEX (+0.2%) eventually ended up in the green. The red price appeared shortly after interest rates rose. This in turn was due to the good ISM index of August. The problem is that this makes the Federal Reserve very hawkish, because of an overheated labor market and sky-high inflation. Well, you know the story.

Also shell (-1.3%) – that this bear market has endured well so far – trading in the red today. Reuters news agency reported that Shell and Exxon are putting the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij up for sale. Both parties have a 50% interest in this joint venture and NAM could bring in more than $1 billion, according to Reuters.

According to both our readers and the stock market experts surveyed by Corné van Zeijl, Shell is the stock to have in September. KPN, Ahold Delhaize and DSM were also tipped by the experts. It should be noted that forecasting prices on a monthly basis is extremely difficult. They also advise to stay away from ArcelorMittal, Philips, Adyen and Besi.

No less than 64% of the 61 participating experts expect a further fall in the AEX index and less than 20% foresee an increase. “In the 285 months that this survey has been conducted, such a degree of gloom is a rarity,” notes Van Zeijl. So it doesn’t look too good for investors.

Tesla production figures through the roof

Tesla (+0.8%) is heading for a record quarter, that much is clear from the latest production figures quoted by the Chinese passenger vehicle association (which is nice for hangman) CPCA. “With Tesla’s Chinese factory no longer hampered by lockdowns and supply chain shortages easing, production numbers are skyrocketing,” analyst Paul Weeteling wrote in his analysis of Tesla.

Unfortunately, the risk profile is affected by the fact that Tesla’s main factory is located in China. Nevertheless, things are going well so far; China lives up to its name as the factory of the world and has helped Tesla through a difficult period. In addition, China is currently the world’s most important market for electric cars and many other products. The attitude of China thus influences the valuation of almost every multinational.

Vonovia

The price of the German residential investor Vonovia (+1.3%) has come under considerable pressure. Rising energy costs and rising market interest rates certainly affect the group. Vonovia promises to find solutions for tenants who can no longer afford the rent due to the higher energy bill.

At the same time, the group sees market interest rates rising and does not consider external additional financing for expansion an option for the time being. This makes investors cautious, but for now the profit forecast for this year is intact and the homes have only increased in value. In addition, Vonovia emphasizes that it will not make any changes to the dividend policy. You can read what all this means for investors in Vonovia’s analysis.

Interests

As mentioned, the good ISM index is the reason for rising interest rates. Those in the US and the UK are shooting up, but European interest rates were also much lower earlier today. The Dutch ten-year yield rises by two basis points to 1.92%.

Broad market

  • The AEX (+0.2%) performed comparable to the French CAC 40 (+0.3%) and slightly worse than the German DAX (+0.8%).
  • The CBOE VIX Index (Volatility) rises to 26.1 points.
  • Wall Street is trading as follows: S&P 500 (+0.1%), Dow 30 (+0.0%) and the Nasdaq (-0.2%).
  • The euro is down 0.2% and is trading at 0.991 against the US dollar.
  • Gold (-0.4%) and silver (-0.4%) are falling.
  • Oil: WTI (-1.8%) and Brent (-2.3%) fall harder.
  • Bitcoin (+0.4%) is rising a bit.

The Damrak:

  • Berenberg has Just Eat Takeaway (+1%) taken off the sales list. The analysts emphasize that the stock has underperformed the market in general and peers such as Deliveroo and Delivery Hero in particular. Those two still have an edge at the investment bank. Due to the sharp fall in the stock market, the valuation of the Amsterdam meal delivery company is now ‘a lot more reasonable’.
  • The three Dutch indices closed as follows: the AEX (+0.2%), the AMX (+0.5%) and the AScX (-0.2%).
  • belongs again InPost (+4.5%) to the biggest risers in the Damrak. This means that the share has risen by no less than 17.6% since it presented its half-year figures on September 1. A best performance in this market.
  • AMG (+0.5%) has signed a three-year agreement for the supply of lithium hydroxide to the Korean company EcoPro. The lithium hydroxide will be supplied from an AMG facility in Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany, which is currently under construction and should be operational in the third quarter of 2023. AMG supplies 5,000 tons of lithium hydroxide for batteries per year to EcoPro in Hungary.
  • ABN Amro (-0.5%) has adjusted the compensation scheme for revolving consumer credit. Victims now also receive compensation for interest-on-interest.
  • Shareholders of CM.com (-3.8%) must be on their way again now that the volatile growth stock continues to fall. The €10 limit is coming eerily close.

Advices:

  • Just Eat Takeaway: increased to hold with a price target of €16.30 – Berenberg

Agenda Wednesday 7 September 2022

04:00 Trade Balance – August (Chi)

08:00 Industrial Production – July (Ger)

11:00 Economic growth – Second quarter def. (EUR)

13:00 Mortgage Applications – Weekly (US)

14:30 Balance of Trade – July (US)

19:00 Event Apple unveiling new iPhone (US)

20:00 Federal Reserve – Beige Book (US)

22:00 GameStop – US Q2 Figures

Coen Grutters is editor of IEX. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments. Click here for an overview of the investments of the IEX editors.


The article is in Dutch

Tags: Closing call AEX rising today good

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