In our Discord group, we regularly ask our Premium members what they want to read. Current economic data is often high on the list. Yesterday and the day before yesterday, new information was published about the job market and the economy. This is very important because the market determines where it is going based on this kind of information. The job market, together with the various inflation rates, production and consumption figures, forms the main points of the ‘road map’ in the economy, regardless of what is happening on the geopolitical level. But the new information paints a mixed picture.
US job market and consumer confidence
First, let’s start with the job market in the United States. The day before yesterday, the new measurement of the JOLTs Job Opening free, which measures the number of job openings in the US. There are 11,239 million positions open this month. Not only is that more than last month’s 11,040 million jobs, it’s far more than the expected 10.475 million jobs. So we were aiming for a significant contraction in the job market, but we got the opposite.
However, data points sometimes differ from each other. The Nonfarm Employment data shows a contraction. 132,000 jobs were added, which is slightly more than last month’s 128,000. Yet this is a lot less than the 288,000 that was expected.
The crypto market it looks like positive at the moment. After all, it indicates that the economy is strong. We also see that in the consumer confidence in the US. This value has gone from 95.3 to 103.2. The expectation was only a slight improvement from 97.9, but the reality was a lot better.
European inflation is taking yet please
Germany is the largest economy in Europe, and because the Netherlands is a transit country for products from Germany, this neighboring country is very important for the Netherlands and for the rest of the world. Europe. Unemployment in Germany is decreasedbut meanwhile the French are spend less.
Also, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Europe rose again. The average annual value for all euro countries has gone from 8.9% to 9.1% this month. 9.0% was the expectation. If we use Core CPI for the eurozone When we look at it, we see why: it has gone from 4.0% to 4.3%. In the Core CPI, food and energy prices have been omitted, so other goods have risen in price. Energy prices reflect that, as they have fallen slightly. However, there is a good chance that this dip is only temporary.
US is leading factor
For the time being, the US economy appears to be the leading factor. The situation in the crypto market stands and falls with liquidity, and the US central bank has the most room to raise interest rates. The dollar is also the world reserve currency. Presumably, the US will only be less leading if the dollar is no longer so influential.
But the Federal Reserve mainly takes the US economy into account. Last week, the central bank announced that the economy is so strong that it must be weakened, even if the job market or consumer confidence deteriorates. In fact, both of these prove to be very strong, which is reason enough for the US to keep raising interest rates.
In principle, that is bad crypto news. But there are also signs that the situation in the economy is already deteriorating so much that we may already be halfway through the crash. So good news? maybe, maybe it will be on sale soon. Would you like to participate in these kinds of discussions? Join our Discord group and have fun!