Nearly $1 billion in bitcoin options contracts will expire today. This is quite bullish and comes after the market’s recovery from the dip following the launch of bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Many people are speculating that derivative expirations will be bullish for Bitcoin’s price over the weekend.
22,000 bitcoin option contracts expire
The expiration concerns approximately 22,000 bitcoin options contracts, worth $960 million. Despite being smaller than last week’s huge expiration, it is a significant volume of contracts nearing their end.
The put/call ratio stands at 0.66, which indicates a preponderance of calls or long contracts over puts or short contracts. A notable point is the ‘max pain point’ at $42,000, where the maximum losses would occur, yet there remains significant interest at the $50,000 price with 14,191 call contracts valued at $610 million, and at the $45,000 strike price with 12,307 call contracts.
With a preponderance of calls over puts, and high interest in higher strike prices, this indicates an optimistic market outlook for bitcoin in the near term!
Recovery in the crypto market
The crypto market has shown stability this week, with a trend towards lower relative and implied volatility as noted by Greeks Live. The introduction of bitcoin spot ETFs is seen as a factor that gradually brings capital to the market, even though Grayscale is still selling a lot of bitcoin. Furthermore, there is growing speculation surrounding the bitcoin halving moment, which is why many people expect a price increase. However, this may already be largely priced into the price of bitcoin.
At the same time as bitcoin, the Ethereum market is also seeing a large number of contracts of 230,000 Ethereum contracts expire today. This is worth approximately $530 million. The put/call ratio for these contracts is 0.33, indicating a stronger tendency to sell long contracts. The ‘max pain point’ for Ethereum options corresponds to the current spot market price at $2,300. Compared to bitcoin, according to this data, people are less bullish on Ethereum.