Economists from ABN AMRO and RaboResearch are not shocked by the increased inflation in January and do not think that prices will rise as quickly as during the peak about a year and a half ago. Earlier Thursday, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) reported in an initial estimate that Dutch inflation has increased to 3.2 percent, from 1.2 percent in December. Economists Jan-Paul van de Kerke and Hugo Erken think that price increases will be lower again in the near future.
According to economists, inflation was expected to be higher than in December. This has to do with the development of energy prices on an annual basis. In January, energy became much less cheap on an annual basis than was the case in December, because the price ceiling came into effect on January 1, 2023.
Van de Kerke and Erken expect inflation to average 2.6 percent this year. According to Van de Kerke, this is mainly due to a decline in commodity prices, but also in food prices. “We see from the chains that price increases are decreasing, because raw material prices have fallen somewhat. Demand in the economy has also fallen somewhat and companies can therefore implement fewer price increases,” explains the ABN AMRO economist. According to him, consumers are noticing that grocery prices are rising less rapidly than before.
Erken from RaboResearch predicts that food prices will rise less rapidly this month than in January. According to him, price increases will decrease towards 0.4 percent halfway through this year. He points out that, for example, milk has already become cheaper, but soft drinks are more expensive.