Eddie Howe heads to the south coast to take on his former club. We look ahead with our data-powered Bournemouth vs Newcastle United prediction and preview.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle: The Quick Hits
- Newcastle United (50.8%) are predicted to keep up their unbeaten Premier League run with an away victory against Bournemouth (22.1%) according to the Opta supercomputer.
- All nine of Bournemouth’s Premier League goals this season have come from open play – they’re the only side yet to score from a set-piece situation so far this term.
- After losing three consecutive Premier League games earlier this season, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last seven (W5 D2).
An injury-hit Newcastle United will pray to keep their Premier League unbeaten streak going when they travel to take on Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday.
Magpies boss Eddie Howe will be returning to a club where he is loved, playing over 250 games for Bournemouth before two separate spells as manager over more than 10 years saw him lead the club from the fourth tier to the Premier League, eventually leaving in 2020 .
His new charges head to the south coast on a seven-match unbeaten streak in the league, scoring 20 times across that stretch and keeping a clean sheet in all five wins in that run, though their heavy schedule has started to tell on Howe’s squad, with injuries piling up.
Anthony Gordon is becoming a key player, involved in four goals in his last five Premier League outings (three goals, one assist), as many as he had managed in his previous 32 appearances in the competition. Gordon netted the winner as Newcastle edged past previously unbeaten Arsenal 1-0 last weekend, a victory that has Howe’s men heading into Matchday 12 in sixth place, just four points off the UEFA Champions League spots.
Howe is not the only Newcastle coach or player returning to his former club, with Callum Wilson potentially facing Bournemouth for the first time having scored 41 goals in 126 Premier League games for the Cherries before also departing in 2020. He has been a huge hit at Newcastle, with 45 goals in 85 games making him the third-highest goalscorer for the club in the Premier League, behind only Alan Shearer (148) and Peter Beardsley (46).
Bournemouth were thrashed 6-1 away at Manchester City last time out, a result that leaves them in the bottom three having picked up just one victory in their 11 games to kick off the campaign. That sole win did come in their last home game, though, a 2-1 triumph over fellow strugglers Burnley that eased some of the pressure on Andoni Iraola, and Bournemouth will be looking to win back-to-back matches at the Vitality Stadium for the first time since last season.
Saturday’s game could offer a maiden Bournemouth start for Luis Sinisterra, who scored his first Premier League goal for Iraola’s men in their defeat at Man City, just 158 seconds after coming off the bench. He also scored in Leeds United’s 6-1 defeat against Liverpool last season, making him one of three players in Premier League history to score in two 5+ goal defeats.
This is a fixture that has previously provided goals, with both teams scoring in eight of the 10 Premier League meetings between the sides, including in the last seven matches in a row, and whatever attacking talent is available will be rare to go.
Newcastle suffered a potentially costly 2-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League in midweek, a game that further hampered Howe’s already struggling squad. Wilson went off at half-time with tightness in his hamstring, and with Alexander Isak already out and not expected back until after the upcoming international break, Newcastle may have real problems up top if Wilson cannot start on Saturday.
Wilson could be joining an already packed physio room, with Jacob Murphy, Dan Burn, Harvey Barnes, Elliot Anderson, Matt Targett and Sven Botman already injured and not expected back until December or early next year. Bruno Guimarães is suspended after picking up a fifth yellow card of the season against Arsenal, while Sandro Tonali’s season is over after being banned for betting offenses. The injury crisis could offer opportunities for youngsters such as 17-year-old Lewis Miley, who came on in the latter stages in Dortmund.
While Lewis Cook returns from a three-match suspension after being sent off in the defeat to Wolves in October, Iraola has his own injury worries ahead of Saturday’s game, with Alex Scott’s promising start at Bournemouth potentially curtailed by a serious knee injury suffered in the City defeat, while Neto, Emiliano Marcondes and Ryan Fredericks are not yet ready to return to the lineup. Tyler Adams is a long-term absentee after undergoing hamstring surgery.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Having won two of their first three Premier League games against Newcastle, Bournemouth are now winless in their last seven against them (D4 L3).
Newcastle are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League away games against Bournemouth. Only at Birmingham City (6) have they played more away games in the competition without ever losing.
The last clash between these two teams was at the Vitality Stadium in February, as Miguel Almiron’s equalizer canceled out Marcos Senesi’s opener to earn a 1-1 draw for Newcastle, one that extended their unbeaten record to 17 games, tying a club record.
Bournemouth have lost five of their last six in all competitions, including heavy defeats away at Everton and Man City and at home to Arsenal. They have picked up five of their six points at the Vitality Stadium.
Newcastle’s defeat at Dortmund was just their second in 13 matches in all competitions, and it could prove an especially problematic one for their Champions League hopes with Howe’s men now bottom of Group F and with a daunting trip to the Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint-Germain coming up next later this month.
Bournemouth have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League games against sides who finished in the top four the previous season, with the exceptions being victories against Liverpool (1-0) and Tottenham (3-2) in March and April. They have conceded 39 goals in these 11 games, scoring 10.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle Prediction
Newcastle could edge closer to the Champions League places with a victory, and Opta’s supercomputer believes they are big favorites to do exactly that, given a 50.8% chance of winning on Saturday.
Bournemouth could haul themselves out of the bottom three with a positive result this weekend, and their chances of picking up all three points are rated at 22.1%. Iraola would probably take a draw considering Newcastle’s Premier League form, and they come away with a point in 27.1% of Opta’s 10,000 simulations conducted ahead of MD 12.
Newcastle are given a 46.6% chance of repeating last season’s heroics and finishing in the Champions League places, though Opta’s supercomputer is predicting them to finish fifth, just missing out on the top four. Bournemouth are expected to be competitive at the other end of the league table, relegated in 57.5% of simulations, though they are ‘most likely’ to finish 17th and survive by the skin of their teeth.
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