Trump is more popular than Biden in five so-called swing states, the states that are crucial for the outcome, because it often remains unclear for a long time who comes out on top in these states. These are Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia, the latter being the state where Trump is facing criminal charges for election interference. Trump’s current popularity is evident from a poll by the American newspaper The New York Times in collaboration with Siena College.
A total of 91 charges are pending against the Republican former president (2017-2021), but they do not seem to damage Trump’s popularity so far. Although some voters say they will change their minds if Trump is actually convicted. But for the time being, disappointment with Democratic President Joe Biden dominates, notes correspondent Mouthaan.
What strikes you most about this poll?
“That President Biden is really in danger. The swing voters in these crucial states are deeply dissatisfied with what he has achieved. While the Democrats think they have done this, now that the economy is doing better. But people are deeply dissatisfied, because “They still have to deal with inflation and high costs of living. There is still a year until the elections, but this poll is really setting off alarm bells in the Democratic party.”
Why this low support for President Biden?
“Biden won the 2020 elections because many people wanted to vote Trump out. An election is always a referendum on the sitting president: how is he or she doing? Many American voters think Biden is too old and doubt whether he is mentally healthy enough to do it. country. Please note: this is a poll among floating voters in swing states who still have to make a choice. The most important thing in the elections next year will be: who will get their supporters to the polls?”
Biden is losing a striking amount of support, especially among younger voters, black voters and Latinos. Why?
Because they think that President Biden’s policies have made their lives more expensive and therefore more difficult. Biden will say: I have lowered the co-payment for medicines, the economy is doing better and my climate law will create jobs. But most people don’t feel that way because their living costs have risen so much in recent years. Things are still more expensive, starters can’t buy a house. They think: Joe Biden, you would make our lives better, right? That is why the Biden campaign team has a lot of work to do to better explain what Biden has achieved.”
Age plays a bigger role with Biden than with Trump. How is that possible?
“Joe Biden will turn 81 later this month. A sitting American president has never been that old. It is something you also notice: he occasionally mumbles and has more difficulty walking. Trump is also elderly at 77, but many people have the feeling that he radiates strength with his loud voice during speeches. On the other hand, you notice that Trump also makes mistakes more often. For example, he recently accidentally said that he had defeated Obama, while it was Clinton. But he will not be blamed for these kinds of mistakes for the time being.”
Multiple charges are pending against Trump. What influence does that have?
“Although Trump has yet to be elected in the Republican primaries, almost 60 percent of Republican voters currently say they will support him. A huge lead, also because his opponents are performing remarkably weakly. Number two, Ron DeSantis, has not yet achieved 14 percent, and number three Nikki Haley less than 8 percent. Some Republican voters are willing to switch if Trump is convicted of trying to overturn the election results. But the majority support him and go along with the falsehood that Trump lost the elections unfairly. He is deeply loved by his supporters, they love him and will not leave him.”
What consequences does this have for the election race?
“I fear that it will be a campaign year full of negativity. The Biden campaign team will realize due to his declining popularity: painting a positive image of our candidate and his ‘Bidenomics’ no longer helps. So then we will go full Trump attacks. I foresee a tough campaign by Biden and his team to win back floating voters. With the message: do you want to go back to the time of the storming of the Capitol? I may be old, but he is crazy.”
Trump leads in five of the six swing states surveyed. Why is that so important?
“There are many states in which we are almost certain in advance which party will win. In the elections you will soon need 270 electoral votes to win, so you can count in advance which states will be decisive, states where it will be really exciting.” These are not always the same states, for example Arizona and Georgia turned out to be swing states in the previous elections, which they were not before. But what is certain is: you cannot become president of the US if you do not win a number of these swing states. you know how to win. Ultimately, it’s all about those 6 to 8 percent floating voters.”